After two years of the most catastrophic, climate-induced flooding and wildfires in modern Australian history, one might expect global heating to be a defining issue in the federal election on May 21.
But as an Australian visiting home from Germany for the first time in four years, it's been shocking to watch mainstream politicians barely discuss, let alone commit to, ambitious climate mitigation targets.
Months before I first emigrated from Australia in 2009, I had fled my house in the hills as the devastating Black Saturday fires killed more than 100 people across the next valley. In the decade since, these extreme weather events have only intensified.
The world's driest inhabited continent, Australia is among the nations most vulnerable to climate change. East coast towns were submerged by once-in-a-millennium floods in March and April. Around 90% of the Great Barrier Reef succumbed to yet another mass bleaching event this year due to heat stress.
Polls show that most Australians want government to take action to mitigate worsening climate impacts. Yet those demands have barely registered in debates ahead of the election.
So why are Australian lawmakers silent on climate?
For one, Australia is the world's second-biggest exporter of coal, the world's dirtiest fossil fuel. It might be a dying industry, with new renewable energy half the price of coal or gas power in Europe, but the country's all-powerful mining lobby continues to obstruct attempts to limit emission reductions — and an exit from fossil fuels.
As the country burns and waterfront mansions wash into the sea, neither the ruling coalition government — comprising the conservative Liberal Party and National Party — nor the opposition Labor Party want to threaten mining jobs, especially in key marginal seats that could decide the election.
While a market-driven energy transition is happening at home — renewables provided five times more power than gas in 2021 — action to limit global heating has been a political poisoned chalice. It's an issue that has collapsed successive governments during the so-called climate wars.
Climate wars derail action
A decade ago, myself and my climate-conscious friends rejoiced when the governing Labor Party instituted a carbon pricing system and a super tax on mining industry profits.
But such rare ambition was immediately rolled back when the Liberal Party's arch climate skeptic, Tony Abbott, was elected prime minister in 2013.
Now led by Liberal leader Scott Morrison — the man who infamously cuddled a chunk of coal in parliament — the ruling coalition has become a global climate pariah. Australia ranks last in the world in terms of its level of climate action.
So, I wasn't surprised to watch Morrison hail approval for the mammoth Adani coal mine — which could pump out the equivalent of 8 years of Australia's entire greenhouse gas emissions — just before wildfires torched over 24 million hectares (60 million acres) across southeast Australia in 2019.
Though the coalition did finally commit to net-zero by 2050 at the UN climate conference in November, it did so kicking and screaming. It was the last OECD country to make the pledge, which itself relies heavily on carbon credits as opposed to actual emission cuts.
Main challenger ducks climate commitment
Not even center-left Labor, tipped to win the election, are willing to take a free hit over climate. Their emissions reduction targets fall well short of what's required to meet the Paris climate goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) of warming.
And Labor has said no Australian coal mines will be closed any time soon. "Whilst people want to buy our coal, we'll sell them our coal," said one Labor candidate recently.
The shadow of losing a supposedly unlosable election in 2019 after fighting on a strong climate platform still looms large.
Voters could end the climate wars
This election is pivotal for the majority of Australians who want greater climate ambition.
For younger voters who fear worsening extremes of weather, there is some hope in the form of an emerging group of climate-conscious independent candidates known as the "teals." Most of them women, they are tipped to take several coalition seats in the big cities — due in part to frustration over climate inaction.Principal backer of the teals is pro-climate billionaire, Simon Holmes a Court, whose Climate 200 group wants a parliament where "climate science denial and vested interests" no longer "delay meaningful action on climate change."
The election will be tight: if the independents somehow hold the balance of power, they could force the ruling party's hand on climate — some are promising a bold 60% emission cut and an 80% renewable energy target by 2030.
Labor, at the very least, matches the teals on renewables — even if it wants to export coal indefinitely.
Australians have some of the highest per capita carbon emissions on Earth, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls their government a last "hold out" on climate action. On May 21, it's time voters took a stand for the future of their children — and the planet.
Edited by: Jennifer Collins