Austrian elections: Could the far-right FPÖ win?

The results ofAustria's general election this Sunday will likely reshape the country's political landscape for the next five years — the length of a legislative period. Austria's 6.3 million eligible voters have gone to the polls to choose between very different parties across the political spectrum. Above all, however, the election will determine whether the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) will once again secure the most votes and become the strongest political force in Austria. After all, in Austria, the FPÖ already came first in the European parliamentary elections this June.

FPÖ leading the polls

For more than a year, the FPÖ has been polling in first place with just under 28%. The conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) comes in second place at almost 25%, and the center-left Social Democrats in third with just over 20%. The Green party and the liberal NEOS party are neck and neck with around 10% each. The Austria Communist Party (KPÖ) and satirist Dominik Wlazny's Beer Party are both hoping to clear Austria's 4% electoral threshold to enter parliament.

Voters are typically influenced by a wide range of issues, says Sylvia Kritzinger, a professor of political science at the University of Vienna. In this election, however, migration and security are most important to many Austrian voters, the researcher told DW.

Could right-wing populist Kickl become chancellor?

FPÖ lawmaker Herbert Kickl's election posters promise voters that "your will be done" — a variation of a Biblical phrase that Adolf Hitler once used, although Kickl denies he is alluding to Hitler. But even if Kickl were to win the most votes this does not mean he automatically becomes chancellor. For one, ÖVP lawmaker Karl Nehammer still holds that position. And Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen could also thwart Kickl's ambitions.

As president, the Green party lawmaker is responsible for appointing the Austrian chancellor. He has the liberty of appointing whoever he wishes, says Peter Filzmaier, a professor of politics at Danube University Krems. Austrian chancellors, after all, are not selected by parliament, Filzmaier told DW.

Van der Bellen has indicated that he would not appoint Kickl as chancellor. This means the government mandate may not necessarily go to the election winner.

Nehammer has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with Kickl or even holding talks with him. In a televised debate this week, Chancellor Nehammer said Kickl was "radicalized," accusing him of spreading conspiracy theories. While Nehammer has a tough stance on Kickl, he does not however rule out working with the FPÖ party.

Which coalitions are possible?

There are overlaps in the ÖVP and FPÖ policy platforms, for example with regard to economics and immigration. Both parties, for instance, want to restrict immigration. The ÖVP election manifesto calls for a "strict asylum system," and wants to stop illegal migration and move asylum processing abroad.

The FPÖ continues to promote the idea of "Fortress Austria," advocating pushbacks at the Austrian border, wanting to erect fences along certain sections of the frontier and suspend the right to asylum in the event of overcrowding. The party also wants to engage in "remigration," by which the right-wing populists mean the "repatriation of all illegal immigrants on the basis of legal provisions."

The last time Austria was governed by a ÖVP-ÖFP coalition was under then-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. The alliance collapsed abruptly after the "Ibiza" corruption affair. It is considered out of the question that the ÖFP party would sacrifice its lead candidate Kickl for the chance to join a government coalition in case of electoral success. It is therefore conceivable that the ÖVP will try to get the Social Democrats and a third party, such as the NEOS, on board to form an alliance. The ÖVP has fallen out with the Greens, with whom it currently still governs, in particular over the so-called Renaturation Act. A three-party alliance would be a novelty in Austrian politics.

ÖVP catching up

But voters have not yet cast their ballots and may still change their minds. The latest polls project a mere 1% to 2% lead of the FPÖ over the ÖVP. This could be due to the devastating floods that inundated large parts of Austria almost two weeks ago, which provided ÖVP Chancellor Nehammer with an opportunity to present himself as an effective crisis manager, which improved his party's standing and "certainly harmed" the FPÖ, says Filzmaier. This is because up until the natural disaster, immigration — one of the FPÖ's key issues — had dominated the election campaign.

On Thursday, ÖVP lawmaker Alexander Pröll was campaigning in the Austrian capital Vienna, in the hopes of winning a seat in the parliament on Sunday. He was handing out goodie bags with other campaigners that contain tissues to dry one's tears in case FPÖ lawmaker Kickl becomes chancellor.

But Pröll is certain it won't come to that: "I am convinced that Karl Nehammer will continue to be our chancellor."

This article was translated from German.