Managing expectations
June 10, 2011
If it had been up to the Croatian people and even their political leaders, the country would have started accession talks with the European Union long before 2005, when they officially began. But that wasn't possible, because they needed the green light from the then-chief prosecutor of the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Only when she had attested to the Croatian government's cooperation with the tribunal could the negotiations begin.
Thus, from the very beginning, proceedings in The Hague had a direct impact on how things were going for Croatia in Brussels. The EU had made it clear that the negotiations were dependent on complete and unreserved cooperation by the Croatian authorities with the court.
Specifically, that meant a willingness to extradite those politicians and military leaders believed to have committed war crimes during the Croatian war between 1991 and 1995. A significant portion of the population remains convinced that Croatia successfully defended her territory and independence during this war and that heroes of such a war shouldn't face extradition.
And when such people were extradited, many saw it as an unnecessary concession to pressure from the EU.
Pride and prejudice
Support for EU accession dropped, for example, this May when General Ante Gotovina - seen by many as a hero - was convicted of crimes against humanity and sentenced to 24 years in prison. Approval for joining the 27-nation EU dropped to 44 percent from 53 percent last year. It's now back up to 50 percent according to current polls. Pope Benedict's show of support for accession during his recent visit to Croatia is expected to bolster a trend of growth. Some 80 percent of Croatians consider themselves Catholic.
Critics charge, however, that this change in sentiment is only temporary. The vast majority of Croatians are as uninformed about the pros and cons of joining the EU as ever. The government has failed to provide its people with good and reliable information on the issue and euro-skeptics have filled the void with half-truths.
They threatened that Croatia would lose its sovereignty over its waters and coastline. They said that Croatians would no longer be allowed to eat their beloved traditional foods.
At the same time, however, most Croatians think it's only natural that their country belongs in the EU, not just for geographical reasons, but also culturally. They have always seen themselves as part of "Western civilization." And many think that EU membership would set Croatia apart from other countries from the former Yugoslavia like Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Macedonia.
Fear of change
When the EU accession talks began the country was euphoric. Many believed that after joining the EU Croatia would truly become a land of milk and honey. The mood has sobered up a bit since then. Even supporters of accession are concerned about the changes that will come with membership. Croatians, who are already struggling financially, are worried that the economic situation could get worse.
"We'll have European prices and Croatian salaries," had become a common complaint. Currently the average wage in Croatia is about 730 euros ($1,060) a month and the unemployment rate is hovering at 18 percent.
Many also fear cuts to agricultural subsidies and state support of shipbuilders under the EU, and farmers and shipyard workers have been some of the strongest opponents to EU membership. Also widespread is the concern that the country will be forced to sell its islands, forests and waterways to foreigners through market liberalization and privatization. Some worry that domestic products, especially agricultural products, could lose their competitive edge.
Fund to fork out more
Such fears are not exclusively Croatian, though. Many other European nations shared these worries prior to joining the EU. Supporters of Croatia's EU accession would do well to keep in mind that in Finland, for example, the people were initially cool on the idea of joining the union. Now, however, more than 15 years after becoming a member, approval stands at more than 70 percent. The farmers of Poland also used to be vehemently opposed to EU membership, but now rank among the major supporters of the bloc.
Conversely, when asked about the positive aspects of joining the EU, many Croats will speak of the obvious visa-free travel perks, as well as the possibilities offered by access to the European Development Fund. It is estimated that Croatia could be eligible for up to 15 times more funding for structural modifications should it join the EU - up to 1.6 billion euros as soon as 2013.
Much attention must also been paid to furthering political reforms in Croatia and it is essential this work continues even after its EU accession. It is hoped that Brussels will keep on Zagreb's case over cleaning up corruption and reducing the country's huge public debt.
If official accession negotiations are completed in June, as expected, Croatia will put EU membership to a referendum by the end of the year. Proponents of the motion truly feel they have the better argument, though, according to surveys, it could be tight. Much work still lies ahead.
Author: Sinisa Bogdanic / hf, dfm
Editor: Nicole Goebel