Blair for president?

The creation of the role of EU President has become a topic of fierce speculation ever since the much maligned and divisive Lisbon Treaty started its unsteady progress towards ratification in 2007. The new position – officially titled President of the European Council – is expected to be created as part of the reforms set out in the contentious document. However, as the final stamp of approval still hangs over the Treaty itself, the position of EU President remains a hypothetical one.

The Lisbon Treaty, which aims to give the 27-member bloc stronger leadership, fairer decision-making and more of a say on the world stage, could be ratified later this year after Ireland holds a second referendum on the issue on October 2.

Member countries currently hold the EU presidency for six months at a time, but under the Lisbon Treaty reforms, this would be replaced by the post of a single, longer-term president who would serve a two and a half year term which could be renewed once.

Those who have doubts about the creation of the presidential role fear that the stronger leadership and decision-making processes the Treaty aims to build will become consolidated in the hands of the holder of this new executive office while the EU's position on the world stage will become one of a supranational body rather than a collection of equal states.

However, some believe that these fears are unfounded and that the role will be less about consolidating power and more about giving the EU a more public face.

A position of symbolism and representation

"The president of the council will not have such a big portfolio," Ulrike Guérot, the head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle. "He will be the face of the European Union which will carry a high level of symbolism. In real terms, it's a representative position which has a lot to do with providing a voice and face for Europe, above all on foreign policy."

She added that the new position will highlight what Europe stands for - good governance, rule of law, a leading role in climate protection. "An intelligent candidate should be able to enhance these with a set of European values that he or she stands for."

Those who are in favor of an EU President argue that Europe suffers from a lack of consensus on a number of issues; it has no common foreign policy, no defense policy, the idea of an EU army is a mirage, and the bloc has yet to devise workable policies on the environment, energy or immigration.

Providing Europe with a global face

Supporters believe the appointment of an EU President would create a "point person" which would give the bloc an increased presence on the international stage, and would give world leaders a single European counterpart to deal with. They believe the new top job would finally answer former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's famous 1970 question: "Who do I call if I want to call Europe?"

"The president will be a recognizable, visual presence and pictures make opinions. If you have an EU President shaking hands with Obama or Medvedev, it has a strong effect on identity," said Guérot. "The EU is lacking that right now with the triangular set-up of commission, parliament and council and it's hard to identify with a single authority figure when you have a commission president, the president of the council and a rotating six-month presidency. This is often a handicap for Europe when it's involved in international negotiations within the G8, the G20 and others."

But, argues Guérot, the effectiveness and power of the new position depends very much on the person that holds the post. "The first person to take this job has the responsibility to footprint the role of EU President."

One name being touted as a "strong and ambitious" candidate for the position has added a further divisive aspect to the debate; former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Divisive Blair leads undeclared race

Since stepping down as prime minister in June 2007, Blair has been the envoy for the Middle East Quartet – comprising the EU, Russia, the United Nations and the United States – which aims to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians.

There has been long-standing speculation that Blair would seek the role. But a spokesman for Blair said last week: "There is no campaign. As we have said time and again on this, there is nothing to be a candidate for since the job doesn't actually exist."

Despite the fact he has not publically stated his intention to run, Blair has built up a group of high-profile supporters to press his currently hypothetical case for the presidency.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is among those who have backed Blair as the "ideal" candidate.

"It is very important that the Lisbon Treaty is approved, that it enshrines a president for at least three years and that it should be someone with charisma," the Italian leader told a press conference after the European Union summit in Brussels two weeks ago. "As far as we are concerned, Tony Blair is the ideal candidate, he added.

Last week, Britain's Labour government announced that it would back Blair if he were to stand for the job.

"It's the prime minister's view that Tony Blair would be a good candidate for any big international job," current Prime Minister Gordon Brown's spokesman told reporters, echoing Brown's personal support which he gave in a newspaper interview a month before. "If Tony Blair decides to stand as president of the European Council, once that job has been created, then of course we will support him."

Guérot believes Blair could be an unchallenged shoo-in. "Blair has quite realistic chances to become president, even if it's just by default as there are not that many other realistic candidates," she said. "I think Blair has the advantage that he started strongly on European policy when he first came to power and that he initially had European credibility. He is known for his enthusiasm, his engagement, his energy and he gets things done – and these are all good qualities for the President of the European Council."

Ex-PM still tainted by Iraq in Europe

Even if he becomes the sole candidate, Blair's appointment will not pass smoothly. Those who criticize Blair's potential appointment cite the ex-Labour Party leader's decision to involve the UK in the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the division within the EU that decision caused, and his economic policies, among their reasons to oppose him.

Most vocal in their opposition have been members of the European Green Party and figures from the ranks of the European Left, which feel he betrayed the cause with some of his Thatcherite policies and by his key support for the US-led war in Iraq.

"The suggestion of Tony Blair to become the EU's first council president is absurd and would represent a backward step for the EU," party leaders in the European parliament said in Strasbourg last week. "Given that the Iraq war deeply divided the EU, Tony Blair can hardly be considered a compromise candidate. He has also shown little real enthusiasm as the special envoy to the Middle East."

"His Thatcher-inherited neoliberal politics sowed the seeds for the current financial and economic crisis," the Greens added in their statement.

Britain's main opposition Conservatives, who want the European Union to have less, not more, power over its member states, oppose the creation of the role of European president and the potential appointment of Blair.

"Any holder is likely to centralize power for themselves in Brussels and dominate national foreign policies," said Conservative foreign affairs spokesman William Hague. "In the hands of an operator as ambitious as Tony Blair, that is a near certainty."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Michael Knigge