Bundesliga: RB Leipzig's biggest chance yet to beat Bayern

A rumor persists in German football that Red Bull owner Dietrich Mateschitz has a bet with former Bayern Munich president Uli Hoeness that RB Leipzig will win the Bundesliga by 2022.

The chief executive of Mateschitz's Leipzig-based franchise, Oliver Mintzlaff, denies the bet exists but, as he told Sportbild this week, he is well aware that "we've never been in the title race for as long as this."

RB have never beaten Bayern in a meaningful game — their only win came when Bayern had already been crowned champions in 2018 — but they have drawn their last four Bundesliga meetings, including the thrilling 3-3 draw in Munich in December. They're getting closer.

Now, with Robert Lewandowski out with a knee ligament injury for up to four weeks, and Jerome Boateng and Alphonso Davies suspended, RB have never had as good a chance to land a decisive blow as on Saturday evening, when they can reduce Bayern's lead to a single point with seven games to play and reignite the Bundesliga title race.

Bayern Munich tensions

What's more, Bayern's current issues go beyond injuries and suspensions, with reports of a rift between Hansi Flick and Hasan Salihamidzic which culminated in the head coach snapping at the sporting director to "just shut up" on the team bus recently.

Flick subsequently apologized and Bayern insist that the two have cleared the air, but it's a fragile peace and the disagreements over squad planning remain. Flick is said to want a greater say in Bayern's transfer policy after being underwhelmed with Salihamidzic's recruitment of Marc Roca, Bouna Sarr and Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting following the departures of Thiago Alcantara and Philippe Coutinho.

Flick was also initially not in favor of signing Leroy Sane, a move which has eventually started to work out, while tensions also exist over back-up goalkeeper Alexander Nübel, who Salihamidzic reportedly guaranteed a minimum amount of game time. Flick denies ever agreeing to such a promise and has kept his faith in captain Manuel Neuer.

There is also uncertainty over Flick's own future. The German Football Association (DFB) would love to make the 2014 World Cup winning assistant coach Joachim Löw's successor, but Bayern chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge told broadsheet Welt am Sonntag recently that "it is a fact" that Flick will remain with Bayern next season. The 56-year-old coach is yet to rule himself out.

RB Leipzig's best chance yet

If Flick were to leave, there is little doubt as to the identity of Salihamidzic's preferred replacement: Julian Nagelsmann, who will be a few meters along the touchline on Saturday.

As tabloid BILD reported in March, Salihamidzic is "an admirer" of the 33-year-old, who led RB Leipzig to the Champions League semifinal last season and whose four-year contract runs until 2023 – one reason why Mintzlaff remains "very relaxed" and "absolutely not nervous" about his head coach.

"It's no surprise that there is interest in him, but he doesn't give me the impression he wants to pack his bags tomorrow," he said. "He has room to shape things here and he knows he can develop himself. He's developed our players and formed them into a team which can take on anybody."

But for how long? Despite enormous financial backing from Red Bull (RB Leipzig have spent a net €176 million ($207 million) on transfers since 2016, more than any other Bundesliga club, while the Austrian energy drink manufacturer also converted €100 million of debt into club equity in 2019), the club have still been unable to keep hold of their biggest names.

Naby Keita left for Liverpool, Timo Werner signed with Chelsea and Dayot Upamecano will join Bayern next season. Now, reports in England suggest that Upemacano's central defensive partner Ibrahima Konate could also be Anfield bound.

Marcel Sabitzer, Marcel Halstenberg, Willi Orban and Emil Forsberg are all entering the final year of their contracts and, at least in the case of German international Halstenberg, extension negotiations are reported to have stalled over salary demands. Even sporting director Markus Krösche was among the candidates for the sporting director role at Schalke before ruling himself out.

Marcel Sabitzer: How to beat Bayern Munich

Of course, not all of these personnel changes, if any, will come to pass, but the impression remains that, if RB Leipzig are going to beat Bayern and even take their Bundesliga crown, this may be their best chance for a while.

And captain Sabitzer insists they know how to do it. "We tried to press them high and stress them in possession, which was a good plan and got us three goals," the Austrian midfielder told Kicker magazine, referring to the 3-3 draw in Munich earlier this season. "You can't just let Bayern play and hope they have an off-day. You have to be active, believe in yourself and not be awestruck."

RB have fallen considerably short in the biggest games in their short history, losing 3-0 Bayern in the 2019 German Cup final, 3-0 to Paris Saint-Germain in last season's Champions League semifinal and 4-0 on aggregate to a struggling Liverpool team in this season's last-16.

In the Bundesliga, however, they're getting better. In the five years since their promotion to the top flight, only Bayern Munich (387) have recorded more points than RB Leipzig (309), who have overtaken Borussia Dortmund (307) by that metric. This season, they boast the sturdiest defense with only 77 chances and 21 goals conceded, while 16 different goalscorers have tried to compensate for Werner's departure.

Under Nagelsmann, they are more than the ferocious counterattacking side which took the league by storm in their debut season, and it's likely that they'll need those creative capabilities more than ever against Bayern on Saturday. Because, in the absence of Lewandowski, one alternative for Flick is to have Bayern sit deeper and play on the counterattack themselves via Serge Gnabry.

Keep RB Leipzig at bay, and Uli Hoeness will come closer to winning his bet with Dietrich Mateschitz, if it even exists at all.