Bundesliga relegation battle: Bielefeld, Bremen or Cologne?

Arminia Bielefeld

Current position: 15th (= automatic safety)
Opponents: VfB Stuttgart (a)
Permutations:

• A win would guarantee automatic safety
• A draw would guarantee automatic safety provided Bremen and Cologne don't win
• A draw would put Bielefeld in the play-off if Bremen avoid defeat and Cologne don't win
• Bielefeld could survive with a defeat, providing Bremen and Cologne also lose  

Promoted as a surprise but worthy second-division champions last season, Arminia Bielefeld's first Bundesliga season since 2008/09 was always going to be a tough one.

Had you told Arminia at the start of the season that they would still have survival in their own hands on the final day, it's a situation they would surely have accepted. Unlike their rather bigger rivals Cologne and Bremen, they really have little to lose, and a second season in the Bundesliga would be a bonus.

Given the comparatively low expectations in Westphalia, the decision to part company with second division winning head coach Uwe Neuhaus in March turned heads.

But director of sport Samir Arabi and the club hierarchy clearly felt that more could be achieved with the squad and, with replacement Frank Kramer averaging 1.18 points per game since taking over (three wins, five draws and only three defeats), they've been proven right.

However, they face a tough task away at fellow promoted side VfB Stuttgart, who themselves are still chasing a European spot. Bielefeld will be hoping they don't come to regret not getting more than a point against Hoffenheim last weekend …

Werder Bremen

Current position: 16th (= playoff)
Opponents: Borussia Mönchengladbach (h)
Permutations:

• A win would guarantee safety provided Bielefeld don't win. Otherwise, Werder will face a second consecutive playoff.
• A draw would guarantee safety on goal difference providing Bielefeld lose and Cologne don't win, but would see Werder in the playoff if Cologne do win.
• A draw would see Werder go straight down if Cologne win and Bielefeld avoid defeat
• Defeat would still see Werder in the playoff on goal difference provided Cologne don't win.  

Werder Bremen have only ever spent one season outside of the Bundesliga since its formation in 1963 (they were relegated in 1980 but came straight back up), but this is now the second year in a row that they've come dangerously close to the trap door.

Last season, a 6-1 final-day thrashing of already-safe Cologne saw them scrape into the playoff, where they then failed to beat second-division Heidenheim but survived on away goals (0-0, 2-2).

Director of sport Frank Baumann kept his faith in young head coach Florian Kohfeldt, who had led the team to safety in 2017/18 and finished eighth in 2018/19, only just missing out on the Europa League.

But this season, Kohfeldt has been unable to coax the same levels of performance out of his players, not helped by the return of captain Davy Klaassen to Ajax and the failure of star striker Milot Rashica to replicate the sort of form which saw him attract interest from, among others, RB Leipzig.

Elsewhere, established Bundesliga attacking options such as Yuya Osako, Leonardo Bittencourt, Davie Selke and Josh Sargent have had disappointing seasons, while defensive midfielder Maximilian Eggestein looks a shadow of the player who was being tipped for a Germany call-up.

Kohfeldt was eventually relieved of his duties following last weekend's 0-2 defeat away at Augsburg, despite Werder playing most of the first half with an extra man, and will be replaced on an interim basis by club legend Thomas Schaaf.

In his first spell in charge between 1999 and 2013, Schaaf oversaw one of Werder's most successful periods, winning the Bundesliga in 2004, three German Cups in 1999, 2004 and 2009 and even reaching the UEFA Cup final in 2009.

Success this time around will look very different if he manages to steer Bremen clear of the drop, where around €75 million of debt could see the club sink into serious trouble.

Cologne

Current position: 17th (= automatic relegation)
Opponents: Schalke (h)
Permutations:

• Cologne have to win and even then, it might not be enough
• A win would guarantee safety provided Bremen and Bielefeld both lose (or even if Bielefeld draw)
• A win would see Cologne in the playoff if Bielefeld win and Bremen don't.
• A win would still see Cologne go straight down if both Bremen and Bielefeld win. 

Here we go again. As surely as night follows day, perennial elevator club Cologne once again find themselves in a relegation battle. Should the Billy Goats go down, it would be their seventh relegation from the Bundesliga since 1998. That takes some doing.

So, what's gone wrong this time?

Cologne only returned to the Bundesliga in 2019 (their sixth promotion this century – also impressive) but are in trouble again, despite a season which has seen them take four points off Borussia Dortmund and beat both Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig.

However, a notoriously leaky defense (only Schalke have conceded more) has been their Achilles Heel as they slipped to heavy defeats not just to Bayern Munich but also the likes of Bayer Leverkusen (twice) and Freiburg (twice).

Five million euro signing Sebastian Andersson has been a flop, the Swedish striker managing only three goals in an injury-hit campaign compared to 12 for Union Berlin last season, while Max Meyer has merely swapped Crystal Palace's bench for Cologne's.

Ondrej Duda has proven to be an astute signing from Hertha Berlin, but even the Slovakian's seven goals and six assists might not be enough to save Cologne, who will at least be able to count on former German international Jonas Hector when he returns from injury to face relegated Schalke on the final day.

Head coach Markus Gisdol was sacked in April after eight games without a win, with former Fortuna Düsseldorf coach Friedhelm Funkel taking charge until the end of the season.

The club have already announced that Steffen Baumgart will take over next season, whether in the Bundesliga or Bundesliga 2. Although, having been through all of Germany's top three divisions with his former elevator club Paderborn, Baumgart would appear to be the perfect candidate for Cologne, whatever happens.