Burundi's ruling party wins parliamentary vote

Nkurunziza ignored calls to postpone the June 29 parliamentary elections, which were boycotted by the opposition. In the past two months about 80 people have been killed as Burundians protested against Nkurunziza's bid for a third five-year term in office, which critics say is violating the constitution. More than 140,000 people have fled the country. DW spoke to Phil Clarke from SOAS, University of London.

DW: The ruling CNDD-FDD party has won last week's controversial polls which were boycotted by the opposition. Will this victory bring some form of stability or increase the political divide in Burundi?

Phil Clark: This parliamentary result is likely to increase tensions in Bujumbura and elsewhere in the country because it represents the desire by President Nkurunziza to simply forge ahead with the presidential vote. The fact that he did not postpone the parliamentary elections, even though the opposition had threatened to boycott them, and even though the vote was opposed by regional and international actors. The fact that he forged ahead with the vote sends a signal to the protestors that he is hell-bent on holding the presidential election as soon as possible. And that's the kind of thing that will only increase the protests and ramp up the tensions. So I think the likelihood is a series of escalating outbreaks of violence in the next couple of weeks.

These parliamentary elections were declared not free and fair by the UN international observers - how then can Burundians trust the results?

There are big question marks over the validity of these results given that there have essentially been no observers on the ground. But of course it is highly likely that the ruling party will have won a very substantial percentage of the vote if only because most of the major opposition parties boycotted the polls. The reactions on the street will be that this parliamentary vote means very little in a period when there has been this opposition boycott and also a crackdown on free media and constraints upon serious assembly. All of that means it is very difficult to have a peaceful vote at this time. So even if the ruling party undoubtedly will have won this vote it won't be seen as legitimate by many everyday Burundians.

Should we expect the same in the upcoming presidential elections?

It seems a fait accompli that if Nkurunziza goes ahead with the presidential vote that he will win in a landslide. Because the opposition parties again have said they will boycott the vote. It seems that the African Union and perhaps even the United Nations will again not send observers to Burundi for the presidential vote. So this gives Nkurunziza a completely green light to go ahead and run for this third term.

Burundi's presidency says it is considering postponing the presidential elections by two weeks as recommended by East African leaders – is this time enough to ensure the elections are free and fair?

This extra two weeks will really make no difference to the situation on the ground. This is a cosmetic response by Nkurunziza to try and placate the regional leaders in the East African Community (EAC). And when the EAC put forward this demand for a delay they were expecting a much longer delay for perhaps four or even six weeks which would give enough time to fully stabilize the situation in Burundi. It would allow for peaceful protests and re-instatement of free media, and it would give the army and police enough time to back off and create a much more conducive environment for the elections to be held.

The EAC appointed Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni as mediator to Burundi's crisis after the ruling party accused the UN mediator Abdoulaye Bathily of siding with the opposition. Can Museveni be trusted as a neutral mediator?

I think the perception from Nkurunziza's side will be that Museveni is perhaps the actor with the greatest opportunity to be seen as neutral. In the past he has been moderate in his statements. He for example has not come out and denounced Nkurunziza. Museveni has made several trips to Burundi in the last few years. He is quite well respected across the political divide. So at the outset he does bring some legitimacy to this mediation process. But again we haven't seen Nkurunziza open to regional influence. He seems hell-bent on pushing for these elections at the end of this month so it's going to test Museveni's mediation skills to the absolute hilt to try and bring about a much more peaceful resolution of the current crisis.

Phil Clark is an analyst on the the Greatlakes region at SOAS at the University of London.

Interview: Chrispin Mwakideu