Daniel Noboa: Hope for Ecuador?

Ecuador will soon have the youngest president in Latin America. In Sunday's run-off election, Ecuadorian voters cast their ballots for 35-year-old Daniel Noboa. He is two years younger than the Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, previously the great hope of Latin America's social-democratic left.

Daniel Noboa's father Alvaro is a business magnate and the richest man in the country. He too ran for president, five times — without success. Now his son has succeeded on his first attempt.

The president-elect previously held various positions at the Noboa Corporation, and was elected to the National Assembly in 2021. It came as a surprise when he placed second in the first round of voting. At the start of the campaign, neither the political pundits nor the pollsters thought he had much of a chance.

Lacking experience and parliamentary support

Noboa has little political experience, and none at all of running public institutions. He was the chosen candidate of Accion Democratica Nacional (ADN), an electoral alliance of several centre-right parties. But his alliance will only have 14 MPs in the newly elected parliament. The main opposition force will be the left-leaning Revolucion Ciudadana party, which is close to securing the 50 seats it won in the first round of voting, out of a total of 137 MPs. This is not a good basis for stable government.

Ecuador is also facing huge challenges. According to the media platform openDemocracy, in a mere two years, between 2020 and 2022, the murder rate increased by 245%, transforming the country from one of the most peaceful in the region to one of the most violent. Daniel Noboa first came to the attention of a wider public when he appeared in a televised debate wearing a bulletproof vest, after his political rival, Fernando Villavicencio, was assassinated.

Conservative program

But what does Noboa actually stand for? Is he really just a spoilt playboy, as he is sometimes portrayed? Or can he actually make a difference, in a country increasingly mired in violence?

"During the election campaign, Noboa himself defined his political orientation as 'centro-izquierda' [centre-left]. Nonetheless, he stands for business-friendly politics and conservative values, and can be classified as belonging to the right-wing camp," says Constantin Groll, head of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's office in Ecuador.

It is also important to note, he pointed out, that Noboa's vice-presidential candidate, Veronica Abad, espouses "openly extreme libertarian and conservative-reactionary positions." Groll comments: "Noboa avoided appearing with her too often in the election campaign. All the same, she had a not insignificant role as a 'procurer' of votes from the very conservative segment of the electorate."

Very short term in office

However, Noboa can only hold the office of head of state and government for about 18 months, starting in mid-December. This is what remains of the term of the incumbent, conservative president, Guillermo Lasso, which is due to end in May 2025. Lasso dissolved parliament in May 2023 after two years in office: It had initiated impeachment proceedings against him on charges of embezzlement. Early elections had to be held as a result. Lasso decided not to run again, partly because of his disastrous standing in the opinion polls.

So why did voters decide in favor of another candidate from the right-wing camp, despite their disappointing experience with the incumbent? Noboa's main opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, belongs to the left-wing camp of former president Rafael Correa (in office 2007-2017). Correa was convicted of corruption, and now lives in exile in Belgium. Constantin Groll thinks voters simply didn't trust the left to provide forward-looking solutions for the country.

"Through his appearance, discourse and aesthetics, Noboa succeeded in presenting himself during the election campaign as a young and, above all, a new alternative for politics beyond the old, entrenched divisions. This was largely due to a skillful campaign on social media, and the avoidance of direct confrontation," says Constantin Groll.

However, Jorge Vicente Paladines, an expert in criminal law and professor at the Central University of Ecuador, comments that the very short term in office will severely limit the new president's room for maneuver. "Eighteen months is really too short for him to keep his election promise to significantly reduce the homicide rate and minimize the fundamental problem of insecurity," says Paladines.

Constantin Groll from the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Quito shares his fear. "Very little about the security situation will change in the short term," he says. Groll thinks it likely that the president will try to initiate security policy reforms through referendums. He has already announced one of these, during the election campaign.

This article has been translated from German.