Trump's comeback poses challenges for Iran

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House after scoring a spectacular victory in the US presidential election, Iranians wonder what his second term could mean for their country.

The results of the "elections are an opportunity to review and revise the wrong approaches of the past," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, according to Iranian media.

"We have very bitter experiences with the policies and approaches of different US governments in the past," Baghaei said.

Relations between the United States and Iran have been extremely tense for nearly four decades.

Sources of contemporary tension include Iran's nuclear program, as well as US support for Iran's archenemy, Israel.

During his first term, Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the international nuclear agreement with Iran and slapped tough sanctions on the regime.

Trump said he wanted to negotiate a "better deal" than the one concluded by the US administration under President Barack Obama. 

In January 2020, Trump ordered the killing of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, an elite unit that handles Tehran's overseas operations — and one deemed to be a foreign terrorist organization by the US.

'Strangling' Iran's economy

During his campaign, Trump accused US President Joe Biden of being weak toward Iran. He also alleged that the Iranian leadership was plotting attacks against him and threatened Iran with annihilation.

Under his leadership, Trump said, everything would change.

"It is important to see Trump's Iran policy in a realistic way," Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW.

"Trump is looking to contain Iran's regional and nuclear activities and force a change in Iranian regime behavior through a maximum-pressure campaign and strangling of the Iranian economy," Vakil said. "This does not translate into regime change despite the fact that activists see it in this way."

Vakil said Iran would avoid direct contact and rely on informal channels to communicate with the new US administration. "Iran is certainly going to rely on backchannels to message the incoming administration and the Qataris provide a good role to communicate such intent."

Middle East peace?

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly said he would prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

In September, Trump said the United States must reach an agreement with Iran to stop its nuclear program.

In mid-October, Trump tokld the broadcaster Al-Arabiya that peace in the Middle East would be possible if he won the election.

Trump cited the Abraham Accords — a series of individual diplomatic agreements that his administration facilitated in 2020 to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.

Trump described the Abraham Accords as his greatest foreign policy achievement and the cornerstone for possible peace in the Middle East.

He has said he wants to negotiate similar deals with Iran and several other countries.

Appearances can be deceptive

"Donald Trump wants to start his next term in office as a peacemaker. But a lot can still happen before he takes office in January," Farzan Sabet, an expert on economic sanctions, nuclear nonproliferation and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told DW.

Sabet said the direct confrontations between Iran and Israel in recent months had also worsened tensions between Tehran and Washington.

"Donald Trump as president would have many options to exert massive pressure on Iran," Sabet said.

"In addition to further sanctions, this could include targeted military action and the strengthening of Israel and Sunni Arab states to counter Iran," he said. 

"The incoming administration's foreign policy and national security team would likely be led by known anti-Iran hard-liners who are not willing to negotiate," he added, "In order to negotiate directly with President Trump, the Iranian leadership would first have to overcome this barrier."

Saudi Arabia's role

Iran has been preparing for a second Trump presidency for months. In June, Masoud Pezeshkian, the then newly elected Iranian president, raised the possibility of Trump returning to the White House.

During his election campaign, Pezeshkian accused his opponents of not having a plan in the event of a Trump comeback.

This week, Pezeshkian said the result of the US election did not matter to Iran.

"We will not be close-minded in developing our relations with other countries (while) we have made it our priority to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries," Pezeshkian said.

Iran is also currently working hard to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia after the countries resumed diplomatic relations in 2023 with the help of China's mediation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Riyadh at the beginning of October and met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is considered a confidant of Trump's.

This article was originally written in German.