Election dispute

Just a few hours after polling stations closed on Wednesday July 9, both candidates in Indonesia's presidential election claimed victory. Joko "Jokowi" Widodo (main picture, right), the governor of Jakarta, was ahead in the poll with about 52 percent of the vote, while Prabowo Subianto (main picture, left) had about 48 percent, according to most credible quick count surveys. However, Prabowo refused to accept defeat, claiming he had different quick-count data showing he had won.

The candidates' claims have led to an unprecedented standoff in a country which has only witnessed two previous direct presidential elections after the downfall of long-serving autocrat Suharto in 1998. Gregory Poling, a Southeast Asia analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), says in a DW interview he is a bit baffled by Prabowo's victory claim and believes that the politician he continues to insist on victory and rails against Jokowi's apparent win, then it could make things very uncomfortable for his coalition and for the electorate.

DW: Were Indonesia's presidential elections free and fair?

Gregory Poling: By all indications, yes. Both independent monitors and those affiliated with political parties have indicated that voting proceeded smoothly and fairly, and all indications are that the day proceeded peacefully.

What were the key political issues that shaped this election?

The top issues for most voters seemed to be bread and butter concerns about jobs, healthcare, education, and the social safety net. But there was also significant attention paid to which candidate disaffected voters thought could best crackdown on corruption, cut bureaucratic red tape, and invest in much needed infrastructure. And, as in all Indonesian elections, nationalist chest-thumping and calls for greater economic protectionism played their part.

Unofficial quick-count results Jakarta governor Jokowi ahead of his rival Prabowo. Why does Prabowo claim he has won the poll?

Prabowo's claim to victory at the moment seems a bit baffling. He has insisted that his party has internal quick counts indicating that he won, but the public has so far seen no evidence of that. The three major, independent agencies that released quick counts indicated that Jokowi won by anywhere from 3.5 percent to just over 5 percent - well outside their historic margin of error of about plus/minus one percent.

All in all, there would be nothing wrong with Prabowo insisting on waiting until the official results are released on July 21-22 to concede, but insisting that he has already won is a bit baffling. That said, he will likely file appeals after the official results are released that could keep the drama going until late August. In the end, though, Prabowo will be under enormous pressure to accept defeat, no matter how painful that might be for him.

Could the victory claims by both candidates have a polarizing effect on the Indonesian society?

There is certainly a lot of handwringing right now in both Indonesia and abroad that the rival claims to victory could result in violence, particularly by Prabowo's most ardent supporters if he refuses to concede. That is a possibility, and elections are by their nature polarizing, but in the end I expect that a vast majority of Indonesians will accept the results, whether they had supported Jokowi or not. Indonesia is an increasingly consolidated democracy, and its electorate is overwhelmingly committed to democratic norms.

Could the refusal by both sides to accept defeat lead to a political deadlock?

Perhaps temporarily, as Prabowo's side could spend the next couple of months filing appeals and pursuing its legal options to contest the elections results. But all those options will be exhausted well before the next president - presumably Jokowi - is scheduled to take office on October 1.

Jokowi used to have a commanding lead in the opinion polls ahead of the election. How did Prabowo manage to catch up and make it a tight race?

The simple fact is that Prabowo ran a more coordinated, better funded, and clearly more aggressive campaign. Jokowi tried to take the high road, ignoring negative attacks and relying on his air of quiet confidence. That proved less effective in a national campaign than it was when running for city office. In addition, Jokowi's very late endorsement as a candidate by PDI-P left him disadvantaged vis-à-vis Prabowo, who has in essence been gearing up for his run for years.

It takes about two more weeks until all votes are tallied. What do you expect to happen in the meantime?

That is largely dependent on Prabowo. If he refuses to concede until the official results are released, so be it. But if he continues to insist on victory and rails against Jokowi's apparent win, then it could make things very uncomfortable for his coalition and for the electorate. He could certainly have a polarizing effect on supporters over the next couple weeks. But if his trademark temper is too much on display, we could also see coalition partners begin to distance themselves and accept Jokowi as the likely victor.

What is at stake in this election given that Indonesia became a democracy only recently?

At the most fundamental level, this election heralds the consolidation of democracy in Indonesia. President Yudhoyono served for a decade as the first democratically elected president in post-Suharto Indonesia. Jokowi now stands poised to take over from him in the nation's first peaceful transfer of power between one directly elected leader and another. That is a remarkable step.

Gregory Poling is a fellow with the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).

The interview was conducted by Gabriel Domínguez