EU, NATO growing in popularity in Germany

Germans feel that there's a high global security threat, according to the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend poll. Seven out of 10 consider the threat to peace and security in Europe to be very serious or serious, much higher than five years ago, and the result appears to be more support for NATO and the European Union.

Germany is building up its military at record speed. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz created a special fund of €100 billion ($108 billion) specially allocated for the modernization of the Bundeswehr. Most of that money is currently tied up in orders for heavy military equipment.

Meanwhile, the German military is to be restructured so that it is ready for an emergency — in other words, in the event that Germany is attacked.

On April 2 and 3, the research institute infratest-dimap surveyed 1,304 eligible voters for the poll commissioned by public broadcaster ARD.

Germany's most popular politician

The poll also showed that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is by far the most popular politician in Germany at the moment. Of those surveyed, 54% were satisfied with his work. By comparison, Chancellor Scholz, his fellow Social Democrat (SPD), convinced less than half as many voters.

NATO, of which Germany has been a member since 1955, is currently celebrating its 75th anniversary, and the current global situation appears to have created more public support for the Alliance.

Few respondents to the survey questioned NATO's purpose. Some 82% of respondents believe the alliance is important for securing peace in Europe, while only around one in 10 believes it is unnecessary. Even among supporters of populist parties who have been critical of NATO, such as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), only a minority is in favor of actually dissolving NATO.

US presidential candidate Donald Trump has questioned US membership in NATO more than once, but a big majority of Germans believe it is important to preserve the alliance with the US. And 69% believe that it is in Europe's interest. Furthermore, most German voters are open to the idea of a European defense force: Almost six out of 10 German citizens currently support the formation of a joint EU military.

EU: A positive assessment, but less euphoric

With European Parliament elections coming up in June, Germans' attitude towards the EU remains largely positive, although there are still some reservations compared to the last European elections in 2019. Six out of 10 Germans currently stress how well-off Germany is economically thanks to the EU, while two-thirds emphasize that the EU makes life in Europe safer.

Support for Germany's EU membership increased once again compared to last year. One in three people currently believes that EU membership has advantages for Germany overall, while just under one in four sees disadvantages. For 36%, the advantages and disadvantages largely balance each other out. Those in support of the AfD and the BSW are more skeptical.

As every month, respondents were asked the so-called "Sunday question," namely, which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday.

The conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) would now be the strongest party in the Bundestag with 30% (+1) of the vote, while the AfD would come in second with 18% (-1).

The Social Democrats (-1) and the Greens (+1) would each receive 15%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) would get 4% (-1), which means it would fall below the 5% threshold for gaining representation in the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, as would the socialist Left Party, currently on 3%. The newly founded BSW, on the other hand, would have a slim chance of entering the Bundestag with 5% (-1).

These numbers mean that Scholz's current governing coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP would lose its majority. The poll shows that the public has a low opinion of the coalition government, with around 78% dissatisfied with its work.

Migration remains top issue

The three-party coalition still has about a year and a half left in office. Will they be able to tackle the issues important to Germans in the remaining time? One in four respondents sees the influx of refugees to Germany as the biggest problem the country is facing. In second place is the war in Ukraine, mentioned by one in five respondents, while the state of the economy is in third place, followed by social injustice and climate change.

The Deutschlandtrend survey also asked respondents about the labor market and social policy. Some 72% of respondents are in favor of faster integration of refugees into the German labor market, while 21% are opposed. Easier immigration for skilled workers is supported by 56%, while 35% are opposed.

There is also currently a debate in Germany about what to do about people who receive "Bürgergeld" (citizen's income), a basic state benefit for the unemployed, but who do not accept job offers. In such cases, 79% of respondents are in favor of reducing the person's monthly allowance, while only 14% are opposed.

Because of problems with the state pension system, respondents were asked what they think about working longer. While 69% are against raising the retirement age further, 25% think it is the right approach.

This article was originally written in German.

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