Rasmussen in Moscow

Fogh Rasmussen arrives in Russia at a crucial time for NATO following the decision by US President Barack Obama to pour 30,000 more US troops into the war in Afghanistan. The US troop surge is seen by many as a commitment by Obama to finish the job in Afghanistan and defeat the Taliban insurgency. Other NATO members will be expected to support the surge with their own troops as the West goes for broke.

The secretary-general will be hoping to get a higher level of commitment from the Russians who are seen by many in the alliance as an integral part of any successful conclusion in Afghanistan, but who have yet to offer anything other than lukewarm support for the NATO mission.

Russia backs NATO's campaign against the Taliban and contributes to the NATO efforts by allowing the transit of alliance supplies through its territory, by cooperating in the fight against drugs, and by offering to supply Afghan forces with weapons and upgrade hardware such as helicopters.

NATO already has an agreement with Russia which allows the transit of non-lethal supplies across its territory but wants this to be extended to allow lethal military hardware to pass through Russia. It also wants to secure over-flight rights for military goods, which currently transit by train.

"Both sides already cooperate well concerning Afghanistan," Dr. Margarete Klein, a Russia expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told Deutsche Welle. "There is a regular exchange of information, transit agreements have been agreed and a project for the training of Afghan and Central Asian personnel combating drug trafficking exists. Both sides could extend this by fostering their cooperation concerning border management and the fight against drug trafficking."

Perceived lack of will irks NATO officials

Despite this, a number of NATO chiefs have complained about what they say is a lack of will shown by the Russians, saying that Moscow could provide more weapons and, instead of selling oil and gas supplies to NATO, they could be providing these supplies for free.

Others say that Russia could have ulterior motives and that it could play to Moscow's advantage to have NATO bogged down in Afghanistan, hindering the alliance's influence in other arenas.

"Russia is in this position where it would benefit from the US and NATO succeeding in Afghanistan but also failing," Daniel Korski, a security and defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle. "China is in the same boat. A victory in Afghanistan would give President Obama a huge boost on the world stage, while defeat would be an advantage to those countries wanting to expand their influence. Continued chaos in Afghanistan seems to be the best outcome for Russia."

Experiences of Afghanistan limits Russian help

Some experts say that Russia's unwillingness to get further involved in the Afghanistan conflict stems from its past history in the region.

"The problem with Russia and Afghanistan isn't a lack of will but one connected to the experiences of the Soviet Union," said Stanislav Secrieru, a Caucasus and Russian security expert at the Center for East European and Asian Studies in Bucharest. "Russia of course has interests to see security in Afghanistan restored and shares the West's concerns about Islamist militancy and narcotics but it will never send troops back into the country after its occupation during the 1980s. This will always influence any decision Moscow makes to contribute to the Afghanistan mission."

The Soviet Union fought for 10 years against Islamist guerrillas in Afghanistan before pulling out in 1989, at a cost of at least 14,000 Soviet dead.

"It's very unlikely that Russia will commit troops but it may expand its contribution to providing and training more civil servants and border guards," Korski added. "The Russians could also pledge to strengthen their support for the countries on Afghanistan's other borders in an attempt to stabilize the region around the war zone."

Despite the thawing of relations between NATO and Russia since the diplomatic freeze following the brief war with Georgia in August 2008, Moscow has continued to hold out in the face of NATO pressure for more help. This appears to stem from a number of other factors which color the relationship between NATO and Russia.

"One of the main reasons that hinder further cooperation between Russia and NATO is a deep lack of trust," Klein said. "Therefore, confidence-building measures are of vital importance, especially in the area of conventional arms control. Both sides should try to revive the Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty process, address NATO's plans for its eastward expansion, and cooperate in the area of non-proliferation and missile defense."

Rasmussen pursuing better relations

As a result of both sides still being at odds over most of the topics which breed distrust, NATO officials are pessimistic that Fogh Rasmussen - on his first trip to Moscow since he took over as head of the 28-nation alliance in August - can extract new commitments from President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

"This meeting will be less about concrete commitments and more about completing the reset of NATO-Russia relations that Fogh Rasmussen began when he took over," Korski said. "In much the same way as Obama reached out to Russia, Fogh Rasmussen has attempted to strengthen the relationship and I think his speech in Moscow will reflect this. He may make some headway on expanding the transit agreement but this visit is more about relations than getting more commitment from the Russians on Afghanistan."

However, Margarete Klein believes that while Fogh Rasmussen may have little success in the context of Afghanistan cooperation, his approach to relations is already making Russia more receptive to NATO.

"The immediate crisis of the Georgia war is over and there seems to be a window of opportunity to 'reset' the relations and strengthen the relationship," she said. "Nevertheless, NATO-Russia relations are not a strategic partnership. It is best described as a mixture of principal competition - especially in the post-Soviet space - and selective cooperation in areas of common interest. Saying that, Russia greatly welcomes Fogh Rasmussen's 'reset' policy because this demonstrates that Russia's international isolation after the Georgia war has been finally overcome."

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge