France polls: What would a Le Pen victory mean for India?

The 2022 French presidential elections will see Marine Le Pen battle with Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent, for the second time. She managed to secure 23.2% of the votes in the first round. Macron received 27.8%.

The second round, to be held on Sunday, is crucial to both France and Europe, given the core beliefs of both candidates on key issues.

While the centrist Macron has professed his belief in a more globalized worldview, the far-right Le Pen has called for a greater protectionist economy. The contrary opinions could pose difficulties for the future of trade relations between Europe and France.

Given strong bilateral ties between New Delhi and Paris, the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union has the potential to further galvanize India-EU relations.

For France, the Indo-Pacific space is a geographic reality where the global economy's center of gravity has shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Six members of the G20 — Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea — are located in the region and maritime trade routes linking Europe and the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean, via the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia, have become very important.

The region's growing share of world trade and investment means that it is at the head of globalization. For example, France has been at the forefront of major transnational initiatives which were created in the Indo-Pacific region and the International Solar Alliance, which was launched with India in 2018. 

Questions over Le Pen's stance on trade

Things could change if there is a change of guard in Paris. Le Pen's battles with the European Union, a history of friendliness with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a recent call for rapprochement between NATO and Russia have raised questions.

Diplomats and security experts have different perceptions of what could lie in store with a change in the presidency, as India figures prominently in the EU's newly released Indo-Pacific strategy, alongside older and trusted partners such as Japan.

"I think Macron will win but with a narrower margin than in 2017," Mohan Kumar, India's former ambassador to France, told DW.

According to Ipsos, a Paris-based market research organization, though it is a tight race in the second round, Macron is favored, 54% to 46%.

"In the unlikely event of a Le Pen victory, I do not foresee any significant changes in the Franco-Indian political, strategic and defense ties. There may, however, be some changes to the trade relationship. Immigration rules may also change but that is something all countries, not just India would have to adjust to," he added.

Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW that, under the Macron presidency, India-France relations reached new heights that were discreet but substantive.

Commitment to countering China?

"Going by Le Pen's rhetoric, I am concerned about how committed France would be to the Indo-Pacific and countering the Chinese threat, especially at a time when there are concerns in India that the US and the West are preoccupied with Ukraine, thereby ignoring the Indo-Pacific," Jacob said.

"I doubt France moving away from the EU would have any immediate or direct implications for India, given that India and France have always had a strong bilateral relationship. Put differently, the India-France bilateral relationship is far more important than India's relationship with France as an EU member," he added.

In the past, Le Pen has repeatedly voiced her intent to withdraw France from NATO's Integrated Military Command and threatened to reduce France's share of the EU budget. In addition, she had earlier expressed interest in "Frexit," though she subsequently revised her opinion on France exiting the EU.

"An exit would have significant consequences, as France, while a founding member of the EU, also possesses the largest defense budget in the bloc. It is the third-largest contributor to NATO's military and civil budgets," Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, an associate fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, told DW.

"With France being the biggest maritime power of the EU, the future of the EU's Indo-Pacific ambitions will be majorly impacted. It is considered a resident power in the region due to its territories there. France has also contributed to the bloc's maritime capability building and capacity enhancement missions,” she added.

France among 'India's foremost partners'

At the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific held in Paris in February, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said the promise of multilateralism in maintaining a regional order in the Indo-Pacific with France was a critical bridge to connect Europe with India.

"In security, France is already among India's foremost partners," Jaishankar said. He added that, with the EU, India "now has an enhanced partnership and operational level of access."

In May 2021, India joined the French La Perouse exercise for the first time in the Bay of Bengal, which also included navies from the other Quad members.

The Indian and French navies have also participated in several multilateral exercises in the region. Both countries have a long-standing and regular maritime security dialogue which was instituted in 2016, and there are frequent meetings between the National Security Advisors and defense ministers of both countries.

"Hence, in India's case, the significance of the special strategic partnership between the two states arises from their bilateral relationship and it being a gateway for India to facilitate an intimate connection with Europe. It has cast a shadow of apprehension regarding the unpredictability and unsustainability of French multilateralism under her possible presidency," Ahmed said.

C Raja Mohan, a leading analyst of India's foreign policy, told DW that both India and France are eager to deepen their security partnership and strengthen their positions in the Indian Ocean.

"India will prefer Macron but France has always been a close ally. Moreover, Le Pen's views will affect ties foremost with the EU, Russia and Germany. How we deal if there is a transition is something which all countries need to contend with," Mohan said.

Edited by: Leah Carter