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Germany's 2026 World Cup qualifiers depend on Italy game

Jonathan Harding
December 13, 2024

The qualifying draw for the 2026 World Cup has been made for European nations. Germany's Nations League performance will affect their path.

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The World Cup trophy at the 2026 draw for European qualifying
Germany's fate for 2026 World Cup qualifying will be decided after their Nations League quarterfinalsImage: Ennio Leanza/KEYSTONE/picture alliance

Despite their strong Nations League performance, Germany are left in the awkward position of not yet knowing their exact 2026 World Cup qualifying path — even after Friday's draw.

After finishing top of their Nations League group, Germany will face Italy in the quarterfinals in March 2025. The outcome of that game will affect which World Cup qualifying group Germany ends up in.

If Germany win their quarterfinal against Italy, they will be in Group A with Slovakia, Northern Ireland and Luxembourg, and will start their campaign in September. Germany haven't played Slovakia since Euro 2016. They also played Northern Ireland in that tournament, but beat them more recently in qualifiers for Euro 2021. Germany haven't played Luxembourg in nearly 20 years.

If they lose to Italy, they will be in Group I with Norway, Israel, Estonia and Moldova and start their qualifying campaign in March. Being in this group would mean a return to Germany for Erling Haalandand a first-ever qualifier against Israel for Germany's men. Germany would also face Moldova for the first time since 1999, and play Estonia again, having last faced them in qualifying for Euro 2021, winning the home game 8-0.

In short, beating Italy would not only give Germany a chance at winning the Nations League but also place them in a smaller World Cup qualifying group that would start later in the year.

“I think group A is a little more comfortable but it’s hard to know right now," said Germany coach Julian Nagelsmann. With draws, it can always be worse or better. I think in group I, Norway are a very good team with many good and experienced players. Group A might be the easier path but we have to beat Italy first. That’s the next step.”

Germany dominated their 2022 World Cup qualifying group, losing just once albeit notably at home to North Macedonia. Under Julian Nagelsmann, Germany have been rejuvinated, losing only one game in all of 2024.

Rudi Völler and Julian Nagelsmann at the draw in Zurich
Julian Nagelsmann (right) will want Germany to win their Nations League quarterfinal, not only to have a chance of winning the competition but also because it will mean a shorter World Cup qualifying campaignImage: Martin Meissner/AP Photo/picture alliance

A complicated draw

Elsewhere in the European part of the World Cup qualifying draw, Thomas Tuchel's England were drawn in Group K with Serbia, Albania, Latvia and Andorra.

With the 2026 tournament set to be the first World Cup with 48 teams, UEFA now has 16 qualifying spots on offer. They will be secured by the 12 group winners, and the runners-up (plus four teams with the best Nations League records) will go into the playoffs for the final four European spots.

In addition to the 16 European teams, there will be nine teams from Africa, eight from Asia and six from South America. Canada, the US and Mexico all qualify automatically as hosts and there will be three more teams from North and Central America (CONCACAF). Oceania have an automatic spot for the first time and two more will qualify through the intercontinental playoffs in March 2026.

Edited by: Chuck Penfold