Germany's Olaf Scholz holds difficult talks in Turkey

For many years now, Germany has been Turkey's most important trading partner and the largest foreign investor. More than three million people with Turkish roots live in Germany.

Today, 100 years after diplomatic relations were established between Germany and Turkey, the relationship between the two countries is complex. Political scientist Jens Bastian from the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) says that the relationship has "many different layers."

"It cannot be described solely in terms of the government elites in Ankara and Berlin. The Turkish community in Germany is also an important factor in the bilateral relationship, be it politically, economically, culturally or in terms of sports," Bastian told DW.

Discord at the highest political level

According to Bastian, "Business associations and private companies work together, and so too do local authorities in the context of city partnerships."

At the national level, however, the situation is very different. In early July 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spontaneously traveled to Berlin to attend his country's match against the Netherlands during the European Football.

His visit took place at the time of a diplomatic scandal. A Turkish national player had made the "wolf salute" on the pitch, a hand gesture used by the far-right Ülkücü movement. The movement's political arm, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is  an ally of President Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Right-wing extremists have claimed the wolf as their symbol, in reference to a gray wolf from Turkish mythology. The Ülkücu movement's ideology is characterized by German authorities as ultranationalist, antisemitic and racist and as holding hostile views toward Kurdish, Armenian, Jewish and Christian people. The Gray Wolf gesture is legally prohibited in Austria but not in Germany, but a similar ban is being discussed.

A number of German politicians expressed outrage at the footballer's gesture. Ambassadors were summoned, and Turkey criticized Germany for hostility toward foreigners.

Differences of opinion — especially regarding Israel

This was not the first time there had been disagreements. During a visit to the Chancellery only a few weeks after the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel, Erdogan publicly voiced his opposition to Israel. He had previously accused the country of "fascism" and "war crimes."

Olaf Scholz stood by as his guest described Hamas as a "liberation organization" and accused Germany of a "psychology of guilt" towards Israel.

Scholz remained calm. Too calm, as critics said afterwards. "It's no secret that we have different, to a certain extent, very different views on the current conflict," the Chancellor countered. That is why it is necessary to talk, he said. "We need to have direct dialog with one another, especially in these difficult times."

Germany and Turkey need each other

Now the two leaders will meet in Istanbul on October 19. According to political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy, there will be plenty to talk about. "Despite opposing views on the Middle East conflict, there are many areas of agreement between Ankara and Berlin," she told DW. "Ultimately, both sides need each other — politically and economically."

A spokesperson for the German government named migration, the war in Ukraine, and economic matters as the issues that will be discussed.

Turkey has been instrumental in making it possible for Ukrainian grain supplies to once again reach the world market via the Black Sea. There have been talks for weeks now about setting up an international contact group to find ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Turkey is also supposed to be involved.

The German Chancellor also hopes to convince Turkey to align with the European Union's sanctions policy against Russia. "Chancellor Scholz must also make clear that this is a condition for a customs union with the EU," Jens Bastian argued.

Asylum deal between Berlin and Ankara?

On the subject of migration, Scholz will certainly address the question of how to return rejected Turkish asylum seekers to Turkey. Turkey is the third most common country of origin of asylum seekers in Germany, behind Syria and Afghanistan.

Most of the rejected asylum seekers from Turkey belong to the Kurdish minority, says political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy. "There is talk of an asylum deal between Berlin and Ankara, which could see up to 500 asylum seekers deported every week." However, there has been no official confirmation of this from Turkey.

In 2016, the EU reached an agreement with Turkey that asylum seekers who entered Greece irregularly via Turkey could be returned to Turkey. The EU has now paid Turkey almost €10 billion ($10.8 billion) to care for refugees in Turkey, 3.6 million of whom are Syrian.

Although migrants and refugees are still trying to reach Greece, the numbers have decreased. Political scientist Jens Bastian attributes this to the fact that Turkish and Greek border authorities are now cooperating bilaterally. "Overall, it seems to me that in terms of migration and refugees, the focus is now on bilateral agreements rather than negotiating a new 'Turkey agreement' at the EU level.

Turkey wants to buy Eurofighters

One topic that is sure to come up at the meeting between Scholz and Erdogan is that of arms sales. Turkey wants to modernize its air force with 40 Eurofighters. As they are produced jointly by Germany, Spain, the UK, and Italy, all four countries have to agree to a purchase. So far, however, only Spain and the UK have given the green light.

"Our NATO ally Germany must of course also take decisive steps when it comes to military equipment, industry, and exports," Erdogan said in Berlin in late 2023.

Following the Turkish military offensive in northern Syria, German arms exports to Turkey were significantly restricted in 2019. In the meantime, Germany's government has reportedly eased its restrictions. The weekly Der Spiegel reported that German arms deliveries to Turkey worth at least €236 million ($256 million) were approved in September 2024. These also included anti-aircraft missiles and torpedoes.

Political scientist Hürcan Asli Aksoy expects that Germany will now also give the green light for the Eurofighter.

This article was originally written in German.

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