Ghana: Can John Mahama return to the presidency?

Former Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama has revived his pursuit of Ghana's presidency.

Mahama's party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), last week endorsed him to lead it into Ghana's 2024 election. He scored over 98% of the votes during the NDC's presidential primaries. 

The 2024 vote will be Mahama's third attempt at the presidency since his 2012 success.

Does Mahama stand a realistic chance?

The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is expected to pick its candidate in November.

The front runners are Ghana's Vice President Dr. Mahammadu Bawumia, and former Trade Minister Alan Kyeremanteng.

Whichever candidate gets the nod won't have it easy against Mahama, according to political analyst Ibrahim Alhassan.

That's because the current president, Nana Akufo-Addo has served the maximum two teams in office, so won't be running in 2024.  

"The chances of John Mahama are brighter in 2024 than they were in 2020," Alhassan told DW.

The contest within the ruling party is also likely to spark division, he said considering how intense and competitive it could be.

"The support base of each of these two, Alan Kyerematen and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, will not put their shoulders to the wheel. They will sit on the fence," Alhassan explained.

"Apathy will set in and this will obviously inure to the benefit of the opposition candidate, and that will be John Dramani Mahama."

Will the ruling party break the 'eight'?

Election watchers like Alhassan said the upcoming presidential vote would also be keenly contested because no party in Ghana under the Fourth Republic — 1992 to the present — has ever won more than two consecutive terms.

Both the NDC and the NPP have always lost power after eight years.

The ruling NPP is entering into eighth year of an Akufo-Addo presidency and while it wants to break the jinx, Mahama wants to become a former president to serve a second and final term in office.

Mahama's success isn't a given, pointed out Chris Atadika, a political marketing strategist. 

He can successfully chart a new path from his previous presidency if he uses a fresh approach, Atadika suggested.

"Mahama finds himself in a situation where this is an existing product that is coming into a new market because obviously election 2024 is a new political terrain. So, he needs to deploy a lot more of the market development strategy," Atadika told Ghana's state broadcaster.

Mahama needs to "find new segments in the target market and then go into those segments," especially among young voters, Atadika said.

But he added that the former president should be expecting people to question him about his past: "So, what did you do in the past? What are you saying you are going to do now?"

Ghana's economic woes

Mahama seems to have already picked a topic that could woo voters: Ghana's economic woes. The West African nation is facing one of its worst economic crises in decades.

The cost of living has gone up, forcing Ghana's cedi currency to tumble and sparking protests among citizens.

The Ghanaian government this week secured an approval from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3 billion (€2.78 billion) three-year bailout program.

The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, is hoping the new program — Ghana's 17th since independence — would change the country's economic fortunes.

Georgieva said he was happy about Ghana's "strong program of reforms to revitalize growth and reduce the country's debt burden."

Ghana's road to recovery 

But the government must do more to bring the economy back on a good footing ahead of the next election.

Some economists have blamed the country's current woes on excessive borrowing and refusal of the government to cut down on its expenditure.

"The first thing that you should do is to cut your own expenditure before you even started looking at debt restructuring because when you go to world bank and IMF, they would look at it," Dr. Richmond Atuahene, a banking and financial analyst told DW.

"They [government] think that you want to keep your old style of business, you don't want to sacrifice." 

Mahama is perhaps taking advantage of this. During a speech after his endorsement, he promised to put a standardized limit on borrowing.

"The NDC government will respond to the concerns of the Ghanaian people, proactively and drastically cut down on the number of ministers and other government appointees," Mahama said.

"There will be no room for wasting the taxpayer's money on the comforts of government officials."

Regional gains from Mahama's run

But Mahama's success at the polls would also strengthen West Africa because of his experience as a former president, according to international relations analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu..

During Mahama's chairmanship of the ECOWAS regional bloc, West Africa was able to mobilize to contain the deadly Ebola outbreak between 2013 and 2016.

Mahama also started efforts to tackle activities of extremists in the sub-region while serving as ECOWAS chair.

"Mahama's return would bring to bear some of the experiences he had had at the early stages when the extremists were on the defensive," Owusu told DW.

Whether Mahama succeeds in 2024 or not, for many election watchers, Ghana's electoral system stands to gain and make a good case of democracy in Africa.

Edited by: Keith Walker

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