Al-Shabab seeks to gain from divisions within Kenyan society.

On Wednesday (18.06.2014) Somalia's al-Shabab reiterated their claim that they were behind two consecutive killing sprees in Kenya's coastal region which claimed the lives of at least 60 people. Kenya has had troops in Somalia since 2011 as part of the African Union intervention force which is in the country to support the beleaguered central government in Mogadishu. DW asked Laura Hammond, senior lecturer in development studies at SOAS in London, how successful the Kenyan troops have been in fighting al-Shabab militants in Somalia so far.

Laura Hammond: They have been key in terms of having been able to drive al-Shabab out of some of the main urban areas in the southern part of the country, in particular the port city of Kismayo. They have been successful in helping the new Somali government to establish an administration in so-called '‘liberated areas.' But all they have done is push al-Shabab out of some areas and into others so they certainly haven't had very much success in terms of actually defeating the movement.

But al-Shabab are nonetheless seeking to punish Kenya for what they are doing in Somalia.

Sure, al-Shabab sees Kenya as a major component in the AMISOM force (the African Union Mission in Somalia). They see Kenya's support for AMISOM as being key to them losing their control in particular over Kismayo port which was their main source of revenue. Al-Shabab has tried to depict this conflict inside Somalia as part of a wider campaign against Muslims in general and in particular in East Africa. So these attacks have been framed in the line of trying to make the point that an attack on Somalia is an attack on all Muslims and they are trying to bring the conflict into Kenya to make it one of Christian against Muslim.

Do you see this conflict persisting more or less indefinitely or is the tide beginning to turn against al-Shabab?

Unfortunately I don't see a tidal change any time in the near future. I think there is an escalation going on and this internationalization of the conflict inside Somalia - bringing it out into further parts of the Horn of Africa – is likely to continue. I think that what al-Shabab is seeking to do is to prey upon some of the cleavages that already exist within Kenyan society, between different ethnic and religious groups, and we'll see that kind of tension escalate in a very dangerous way in the coming months.

Kenyan police have arrested several suspects in connection with the killings on the Kenyan coast. Where do you see that leading?

Well, there's an interesting debate going on. Al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for this series of attacks but the Kenyan president, Uhuru Kenyatta, has said he rejects this claim and instead thinks there is more of an internal Kenyan power play going on between different ethnicities. So, the question of exactly how accountability will be played out, the extent to which those who have been arrested and will be charged with involvement in this crime – who they turn out to be and who they represent – will have quite a lot to do with how the Kenyan state and Kenyan society react to these kinds of attacks, if they continue to occur in the future.

It seems as if the Kenyan president is blaming his political opponents. Why is he doing this?

He is trying first of all to say that the areas that have been attacked were predominantly Kikuyu communities and that is the ethnic group the president comes from. So he's casting it as an attack on his own people which is a very dangerous game to play because then you have retribution and then an escalation of ethnic tensions which in Kenya can be a very dangerous thing. Al-Shabab has claimed responsibility and we have every reason to think they were behind this attack. But there is some grain of truth to President Kenyatta's position which is to say that this increasing destabilization and increasing incidents within Kenya are not just about the export of terror from Somalia into Kenya but it's about the cracks within Kenyan society that allow these kinds of attacks to take place. We know that al-Shabab has links with Islamist extremist groups inside Kenya who are largely made up of Kenyan citizens themselves. So in a sense he is right that this is partly at least a home grown Kenyan problem, probably deriving strength from relationships to al-Shabab in Somalia. But just going after al-Shabab or just going after the so-called Somalia problem is not going to really address the concerns and the causes behind what is happening.

But isn't he playing with fire by trying to shift the blame away from al-Shabab?

Absolutely. He is probably playing in something that is potentially much more dangerous. The dissolution of Kenya would be disastrous, certainly for the country but also for the region. There is concern that if this kind of rhetoric continues, that it could take a violent turn. The point also needs to be made that the repeated kinds of violent episodes we have seen inside Kenya are also an internal problem that belongs as much to Kenya as to its neighbors.

What do the Kenyan authorities need to do if they are going to get on top of this problem?

I think they need to look very carefully at some of the grievances that are being expressed. Hidden within the awful terrorist tactics and strategies are some real concerns about, for instance, how land has been appropriated by people who have moved into coastal communities from other areas, the extent to which religious and ethnic tolerance is practised within the country, the attitude towards Somali citizens of Kenya, and also the refugee population that has fled from al-Shabab into Kenya, looking for a safe place. Now in some way they are being scapegoated as being associated with that movement. There's a real kind of internal accounting that needs to take place before any significant and meaningful progress can be made in the fight against terror.

Interview: Mark Caldwell