Harris, Trump both prioritize US tech interests

Quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, the climate crisis, space exploration and semiconductor manufacturing.

These are just some of the critical science and technology priorities that the next US president, be it Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will need to address during his or her time in office.

Emerging tech will have significant implications for economic growth, national security and global leadership over the next five years. Some, like AI regulation or semiconductor manufacturing, could shape global economics and relationships for a generation.

"The next president will address the relationship of the US research community with the world. And global challenges in health, environment and security will be high on the next president's agenda," said Caroline Wagner, an expert in science-related public policy at Ohio State University, in the US.

During his first term, Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement and World Health Organization, and criticized current President Joe Biden for "listen[ing] to the scientists" about COVID-19 as something only a fool would do.

Trump couldn't seem more different from Harris, for whom promoting science and innovation forms a core part of her economic policy agenda.

However, both US presidential candidates share common ground in their protectionism of US-based science and technology sectors.

Kenneth Evans, an expert in science and technology public policy at Rice University, in Houston, Texas, sees protectionism as one of the defining issues for the next US administration.

"There's a continued slide toward US protectionism and a decoupling strategy with China on science. Both candidates are concerned with protecting US intellectual property and research security — espionage and wholesale stealing of ideas," Evans told DW.

So, how would a Trump or Harris administration affect US stances on science and tech-related issues?

Trump 2017-2021: Was he really anti-science?

The Trump administration's efforts to undermine science are well documented in the Silencing Science Tracker — an online database hosted by Colombia University which tracks anti-science actions taken by the US government.

"The Trump administration regularly suppressed, downplayed or simply ignored scientific research demonstrating the need for regulation to protect public health and the environment," wrote Romany Webb and Lauren Kurtz in a paper on Trump's war on science published in 2022.

Trump also proposed sweeping reductions of the US federal research and development budgets, which total around $200 billion per year (€185 billion). Climate-related programs were a major focus of funding cuts.

However, Trump failed to get these proposals passed in the US Congress. 

"Congress actually maintained or increased funding levels for most science agencies," said Wagner.

In fact, the US Congress passed some of the largest increases in federal research and development programs in US history during Trump's time in office.

Evans said Trump was more anti-consensus than anti-science. "Trump is an opportunist, so if science suits his interests at the time, he'll take it. He promoted the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, created during his time in office, as a big win," he said.

Trump's opportunism, said Evans, makes it difficult to know what he or his administration plans for 2025 and beyond. 

"Public statements and campaign materials from Donald Trump have focused primarily on manufacturing competitiveness, though specific science policies remain undefined," said Wagner.

What are Harris' plans for science and tech?

During the Biden-Harris administration, Vice President Harris helped shepherd through three landmark tech-boosting bills into law: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act.

While Harris "towed Biden's line on promoting innovation," Evans said we don't know much about Harris' track record on science.

Harris' current platform emphasizes "generational investment" in America's research infrastructure, and her broadly pro-science approach has earned public endorsements from pro-science institutions like Scientific American magazine, as well as 82 Nobel laureates.

"[Harris'] campaign has highlighted domestic high-tech manufacturing, climate change initiatives and environmental resilience. On emerging technologies like AI, Harris has discussed the need for balanced regulation that promotes innovation while addressing safety and ethical concerns," said Wagner.

But Harris' specific funding commitments and policies for R&D remain to be fully articulated, she added.

'Small yard, big fence': US protectionism is bipartisan

However Harris aims to promote innovation and climate science initiatives, the fact remains that both candidates are highly focused on protecting US economic and security interests.

During her presidential campaign, Harris has consistently emphasized strengthening US interests in science and tech sectors like semiconductor manufacturing and biotech to counter China.

"This is part of a broader shift toward protectionism to keep US ideas in the US, and to develop technologies like semiconductors in the US. It's a Biden and Trump policy: Small yard, high fence," said Evans.

Where Trump led with US protectionism, Biden and Harris have followed. Biden and Harris expanded tariffs on Chinese goods and severely limited China's access to American-made computer chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Scientific research collaborations between the United States and China have also declined since 2019.

Wagner said there were multiple reasons for this, but added that "the Trump administration's China Initiative and broader concerns about research security played a role, as did China's push for technological self-reliance."

For Evans, the biggest issue in the next five years will be how the next US president approaches competition with China, and other partners in Europe and elsewhere around the world.

"The worry is that the next president is purely transactional with our partners rather than looking at a global landscape of diplomacy and internationalism," said Evans.

Edited by: Zulfikar Abbany

Sources:

Changes in co-publication patterns among China, the European Union (28) and the United States of America, 2016-2021, published by Caroline S. Wagner and Xiaojing Cai  (2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4035897

Politics v. science: How President Trump's war on science impacted public health and environmental regulation, published by Romany M. Webb and Lauren Kurtz. (2022) https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.pmbts.2021.11.006