How Kenyans see the Ruto-Gachagua split

The impeachment of Kenya's deputy president, Rigathi Gachagua, is expected to sail through both houses of Parliament, after multiple court bids to stop it failed. 

Gachagua is accused of undermining the government, involvement in corruption, insubordination and practicing ethnically divisive politics, among a slew of other charges. Some 291 members of Parliament, well beyond the 117 minimum required, have backed a motion to remove him from office.

Many political analysts believe the spiraling cost of living crisis, deeply unpopular tax hikes and recent deadly youth-led protests were the catalyst for the unprecedented move and the turmoil in President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza coalition.

"Politically, it appears these Gen Z demonstrations have generated this heat," Martin Oloo, a Nairobi-based analyst, told DW. "Political knives have been drawn to separate the deputy from the president."

Difficult relationship from the start

Nerima Wako-Ojiwa, director of the youth civic tech organization Siasa Place, said when forming the Kenya Kwanza coalition, many believed Ruto would choose Kithure Kindiki, the current Cabinet Secretary, as his running mate.

"I think it started off tense. Gachagua was someone who was bringing resources and numbers in terms of communities that he belongs to. But after the protests it escalated," she told DW.

Gachagua, a 59-year-old businessman, weathered corruption scandals and links to the country's former authoritarian regime to win a closely fought election as Ruto's running mate in 2022.

But in recent weeks, he complained of being sidelined by his superior, amid accusations that he supported the anti-government protests that erupted in mid-June. Gachagua has denied the accusations.  

On the day Ruto called the protests "treasonous," Gachagua used a different tone in Mombasa.

"You can clearly see there was a division of power, division of thought and even the way he [Gachagua] spoke to the public was a lot softer. He was in tune with what the public was feeling," said Wako-Ojiwa.

While the Ruto-Gachagua alliance was always a marriage of convenience, with Ruto needing Gachagua's influence in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region, Oloo said, there has been no attempt from Ruto's side "to mend the relationship."

"There are accusations that the deputy is fairly headstrong, they say he contradicts his boss, that he does not respect his boss," he said.

Why now?

According to Wako-Ojiwa, there's an element of distraction to the timing of this impeachment. "On the same day, Kenyan lawyer and activist David Morara Kebaso was arrested," she said.

Kebaso, known for his activism against corruption and mismanagement of public funds, is accused of tarnishing the reputation of a prominent businessman.

"There's also the ongoing corruption scandal around the Adani takeover of Nairobi's main international airport. And Kenyans just feel overwhelmed in terms of the mismanagement of public resources within our government," she said.

After the protests, members of Raila Odinga's party joined the government, critically altering the power dynamics in Kenya. Ruto defeated the veteran opposition leader and one-time prime minister to become president.

"Bringing the opposition into government, and particularly fronting Raila Odinga for the African Union [leadership] and pulling his party structure into the government, he [Ruto] was preparing himself for an alliance with Raila and perhaps what you may call a Western alliance as opposed to continued dependence on Mount Kenya," said Oloo. This comes with considerable risk to Kenya's political stability, he added.

"Drawing political guns at this stage when elections are three years away, without a credible elections body, is politically sensitive and perhaps is naive, and is likely to push us to a cliff, politically."

Not exactly unprecedented

While the method to Gachagua's ouster may be unprecedented, Oloo pointed out that rifts between presidents and their deputies are "a permanent feature of our Kenyan politics."

"President Daniel arap Moi survived with more than three deputies. He had Mwai Kibaki, then Josephat Karanja, then George Saitoti," he said. Mwai Kibaki also had three deputy presidents during his term from 2002 to 2013.

Wako-Ojiwa of Siasa Place added that even Ruto had a falling out with his former superior, President Uhuru Kenyatta. Ruto initially even said that the political persecution he suffered under Kenyatta would not happen again.

"Ruto was actually ostracized from several meetings and engagements," she explained. This particular backstory has struck a nerve with young Kenyans like businesswoman Gladys Warigia. 

"You could tell they were really not eating from the same plate, or even the same dining able. This impeachment actually changes my opinion of Ruto because he went through the same thing: the act of betrayal. And he's also doing it to someone else, which also shows how untrustworthy he is," she told DW.

Could Ruto have regrets?

For Wako-Ojiwa, the situation represents an unwelcome step back: "We're going back to this tribal organizing, with even the protests [...] why I think that it's going to backlash completely is the younger population doesn't support this. They are sick of it."

Analyst Martin Oloo said the repercussions for Ruto could be big: "There is a real potential that when the rest of the country withdraws its support from President Ruto, and they begin to prepare for a fight or a comeback, it's going to be vicious," he told DW. 

 

Ruto has not commented publicly on the impeachment proceedings, but Kenya's citizens are following it closely.

DW spoke with several people in Nairobi about how they think his image has been affected. 

"This will have a great impact on Ruto's credibility to work with allies, and no matter the outcome of the impeachment, it will have a negative impact on the president's leadership capabilities," said 27-year-old student Lex Mulwa. 

"It will not look good on Ruto in the upcoming elections in 2027, and I believe this is a strategic trick to distract Kenyans from the bigger picture," said Zipporah Wangare, a shoe vendor. 

Wako-Ojiwa was more direct: "When Kenya Kwanza came into power, they were saying we care about the economy, we are not going to align according to tribe, but what we're seeing right now is the conversations about tribe has begun."

Andrew Wasike in Nairobi contributed to this report.

Edited by: Benita van Eyssen