India polls: Will Kashmir punish BJP for revoking autonomy?

Election campaigning is in full swing in Indian-administrated Kashmir, with the upcoming general election the first major vote in the region since it was stripped of its limited autonomy in August 2019.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the first of the five phases of voting will take place on April 19, and the results of five Kashmir Lok Sabha (parliamentiary constituency) elections and one Union Territory seat election will be announced on June 4.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to make unprecedented inroads in Kashmir but the Hindu nationalist BJP has been struggling in the Muslim-majority region.

Modi has now pledged to work hard to "win the hearts of the people." In one of his three recent rallies in Kashmir, the Indian prime minister announced development projects worth more than $700 million (€678.5 million).

BJP stands by revocation of Article 370

Modi is facing an uphill battle as both he and Home Minister Amit Shah consistently praise the removal of Article 370 — stripping Jammu and Kashmir of their autonomy — as a major BJP achievement.

Article 370 had allowed Jammu and Kashmir to have its own constitution. Under locally approved laws, this meant that only local Kashmiris could vote, own land, and apply for government jobs and scholarships. Critics claim that scrapping the land ownership provision was a move by the BJP to engineer a demographic change in the Muslim-majority region.

Modi reaffirmed his support for the change during the ongoing campaign.

"This freedom has come after the abrogation of Article 370. There is dignity and rights for all," Modi said while addressing a jam-packed sports stadium in the region's largest city, Srinagar, last month.

Still no word on BJP candidates

Kashmir has long been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan as both countries claim the region in its entirety but each runs only part of it. An armed insurgency against Indian rule erupted in the region in the early 1990s and several armed separatist groups remain active today.

"It is unlikely that BJP will attract votes spontaneously in Kashmir," local political expert Ahmad, who wanted to be identified only by his first name, told DW.

"The central government led by the party (BJP) has imposed an autocratic rule over the region. People are desperate for that one chance that will help them get rid of the central rule," the expert said.

The BJP has yet to nominate a single candidate for the three parliamentary seats in the Muslim-majority parts of Kashmir. This could be seen as a tacit acknowledgment that BJP lacks influence in those areas.

The Indian election commission allows for some last minute decisions in places where security might be at risk.

BJP sees its chance in cutting into the votes of traditionally strong parties, "either by manipulating the institutions or by pitting one party against another," which appears to be an ongoing process, according to Ahmad.

NC claims campaign roadblocks

National Conference (NC), a prominent regional party that has ruled Kashmir for most of the past seven decades, is accusing many contesting parties of aligning with the BJP to undermine its electoral prospects. The party sees Jammu and Kashmir as part of India, but is also in favor of regional autonomy and has pushed to keep Article 370 in place. This stance has made it unpopular with Islamist separatists.

The residence of Sakina Itoo, a senior NC leader from the South Kashmir city of Kulgam, is protected by barbed wire atop its perimeter walls and a huge bunker — guarded by paramilitary personnel — at its gate. Itoo told DW that her house had been attacked by armed rebels 13 times, and that her father was killed by militants when she was studying in college. 

At the same time, Itoo says that the government has made the ongoing election campaign challenging, despite NC being a nationalist party.

"They don't permit us to campaign for our parliamentary candidate. You need permission for people, for speakers, for loudspeakers, for flags if you want to hold a rally," she says, noting that these restrictions are not noticeable elsewhere.

Chance to speak up on Kashmir autonomy

The NC and its main rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have announced their candidates for the Muslim-majority seats in the region.

Both the PDP and the NC are part of the opposition INDIA alliance, which was formed to fight against Narendra Modi's BJP in India. However, the two parties chose not to unite against the BJP in the Kashmir vote.

The region has also been without an elected government since the alliance between the PDP and the BJP collapsed in 2018.

Praveen Dhonti, a senior analyst with the US-based think tank Crisis Group, told DW that the upcoming election would put BJP claims that Kashmiris are happy with the scrapping of Article 370 to the test.

The voters "might be keen to express themselves through the ballot since all the other avenues are closed and the assembly elections haven't been held," he added.

New Delhi has undertaken a series of measures such as the process of delimitation, revision of electoral rolls, and granting of reservation to the Pahari community in hopes that it will help the BJP register its first win in the Kashmir Valley. But experts remain skeptical.

"The BJP, its allies, and proxies will have to coordinate efficiently on the ground to make any inroads," Dhonti said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic