Japan: Election looms as key test for new PM

Japan's newly-appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba wasted no time in calling for a snap election after being named Japan's new prime minister on Tuesday, with the former defense minister suggesting it will be held on October 27.

During his campaign for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after Fumio Kishida stepped down, Ishiba had insisted that he had no intention of immediately calling an election if he won the party race.

Analysts believe that his change of heart was due to pressure from different factions within the LDP, where his own support base is limited. 

This suggests the 67-year-old former defense minister — who is widely regarded as a political maverick — is vulnerable to machinations within his own party as well as the will of an electorate disillusioned with its leaders. 

Ishiba had run for the leadership of the party on four previous occasions but always lost out due to his failure to follow party conventions, particularly his robust criticisms of other senior party members, including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

He was elected on his fifth attempt, however this is largely because his closest opponent, Sanae Takaichi, is an outspoken far-right hawk whom many analysts say would have doomed the party in an election. 

Challenge posed by Takaichi

Takaichi still has a great deal of support, however, and will be watching from the wings to see how Ishiba fares in the general election. If he fails to rouse the party and it loses a significant number of seats or is even replaced in government, then it is possible that Ishiba will face a renewed challenge just weeks after he was installed. 

"Ishiba's foundations within the party are very weak," said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University. "He said he was not calling an election but he has quickly learned that to lead both the party and the government, he is going to need all the support he can get and most LDP politicians wanted the election."

Those politicians are hoping to benefit from a bump in support for the new party leader after a politically torrid year, she told DW.

Kishida's government was initially rocked by revelations that the Unification Church — a South Korean religious group also known as the Moonies — had been making generous donations to the LDP for years, had convinced some politicians to allow church members to join their staffs and was actively trying to influence government policy. 

Far more damaging were the revelations late last year that dozens of politicians had been secretly diverting funds into massive slush funds for their own use. Some 39 politicians have been punished, several Diet members' accountants have been arrested and the scandal continues to hang over the party. 

Free from the taint of scandal

Ishiba was not caught up in the scandal and has named a cabinet free of any LDP members accused of financial wrongdoing, even if that meant turning to some relatively inexperienced individuals. He has also said that the party will not support politicians accused of financial misbehavior in the upcoming election, although that may be another promise that he is forced to reconsider under pressure. 

Any hopes the LDP had that the electorate would quickly forget the scandal were dashed when a poll published by The Mainichi newspaper on Monday showing that 77% of voters say Ishiba must uncover and publicly reveal the full extent of the secret funds. 

On the plus side for the new prime minister, another poll by the same media outlet found that 52% of voters have high hopes for Ishiba, with the party's 33% support rate up by 4 percentage points from a survey in late August. 

Rebuilding the LDP's reputation is one of a handful of critical issues for Ishiba, who has less than a month to convince the electorate that he is the solution to the nation's problems.

Other primary concerns are the weak economy and rising prices, the security threats posed by China, North Korea and Russia, a contracting and aging population and the impact of climate change on the nation. 

"The public will judge Ishiba on how he handles the political scandal and what he offers as solutions to the economy," said Murakami. "But if the election does not go well, then it is inevitable that he will be blamed."

Could the LDP splinter?

Go Ito, a professor of politics at Tokyo's Meiji University, agrees that rehabilitating the party and the public's economic well-being will be the deciding factors in the upcoming vote. He also agrees that failure on October 27 could see one of the most seismic events in Japanese politics since the end of World War II.

"After her defeat in the vote for the party presidency, I am not sure that Takaichi will have enough support to replace Ishiba so soon," he said. "Instead, she may choose to leave the LDP and create her own ultra-conservative party, taking many of the LDP's members with her.

"That would leave the LDP under Ishiba as a minority government and he would have to negotiate with other parties to pass any legislation," he told DW.

The LDP has ruled almost uninterrupted since 1955, when it was formed through the merger of two conservative parties, but Ishiba faces a difficult task in uniting its members and, potentially, stopping it from splintering.

Edited by: Keith Walker