Military expansion

The fact that the Chinese military is expanding is nothing new, nor are Chinese plans to get an aircraft carrier up and running.

While the Online Defense and Acquisition Journal (DoDBuzz) calls the Chinese carrier a "symbolic threat," other American media have pointed out that US analysts have “underestimated” the extent and the rate at which Chinese military capacities are growing. This has spurned speculation about the threat China’s growing military could pose for the US in the future.

Nan Li of the United States Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute says China’s growing military capacities are only cause for limited concern.

Referring to the the Varyag, a former Soviet aircraft carrier that China purchased from Ukraine in 1998, Li says: "At this point, I don’t think there needs to be a big concern about China converting a Russian aircraft carrier into an operational one."

He thinks the ship will be used for training purposes and says that it would "take years, perhaps over a decade for China to gain experience, training, technologies to be able to operationalize an aircraft carrier," let alone deploy one "for naval operations."

Far behind US

Li believes that China is at the moment building up its forces for a regional navy and does not yet possess the capacities of US carriers.

"These Russian carriers are not really for global power, but mainly for regional power projections." However, in the long term there could be reason for concern because it is not yet clear whether "China is ambitious enough to build a kind of US type aircraft carrier able to project power on a global scale. We are not sure China is reaching that level of technology."

While China’s military seemingly poses no imminent threat, Gabe Colins, the co-founder of the China SignPost journal, believes that the Pentagon should nonetheless be wary - not because China will suddenly emerge as a massive player in unexpected ways tomorrow, but because defense planning takes time.

"The process is typically one that’s measured in years. Whether it’s in the United States or really any other large military power, designing and acquiring the systems you need and restructuring your forces and so forth to deal with potential contingencies is something that takes quite a while to do," he explains. Thus, it is "appropriate to be taking notice of the modernization that China is making."

Regional power

Other reasons to be worried could be the J-20 Stealth Fighter Jet and the Chinese "East Wind" 21D missile, an anti-ship ballistic missile that has the capacity to sink a warship.

While Nan Li is skeptical as to whether or not the 21D is really operational, Gabe Collins says it could very well have implications for US interests. He says if it really is operational, "it’s a very big deal for the United States because it’s something that would potentially make carrier operations and surface operations within a thousand miles or more of the Chinese coast could make them very complex."

While China’s military spending has greatly increased within the past decade, Collins does not believe China is in an arms race with the US because China still lags far behind the US in strategic and technological terms. Collins estimates that it would take several decades for the Chinese military to be on par with that of the United States.

Friction and opportunities

As China continues to invest in the expansion and modernization of its military and becomes increasingly capable of backing up its own interests, experts see more and more room for confrontation in the region.

Collins believes the South China Sea in particular could cause "friction regarding freedom of navigation through there. I think there may be some people in China that are inclined to treat that more like a territorial sea as opposed to an international water way that the United States has."

The most likely point of friction, however, between Beijing and Washington, according to many experts, is the status of Taiwan.

"There is no question that the issue of Taiwan is the trigger that could lead to a naval conflict between the US and Chinese navies," says Li.

While the Chinese military has well over 1,000 missiles aimed at the island, which is viewed as its territory by Beijing, the US maintains support for Taiwan strategically and in the way of arms sales.

But Li believes direct military confrontation will largely depend on Taiwan: "As long as Taiwan doesn’t declare a formal independence, I guess that will help to prevent a military conflict in the Taiwan Straight."

Despite worries and potential conflict, China’s military growth could also provide opportunities for Washington, Collins argues. He says that both sides could greatly benefit from China’s strengthening forces. A more capable Chinese navy, for example, would actually make a better partner in "dealing with some of the non-traditional security issues, like piracy and so forth."

Author: Sarah Berning
Editor: Adrienne Woltersdorf