Burmese ballot

"Trust us. We, the National League for Democracy, are accustomed to taking on difficult tasks and working in a problematic environment." These are the words of national icon and rights activist, Aung San Suu Kyi at the end of her television campaign ad.

The fact that opposition parties in Myanmar, formerly Burma, were allowed to even broadcast their views on state-controlled television was eyebrow-raising news in its own right.

Also new is that the National League for Democracy (NLD), which boycotted the last election in 2010, is set to win seats in parliament this time on its first try. Altogether, 45 seats are up for grabs on April 1 after deputies left the assembly to take government posts.

Unlike the last vote, international observers have been permitted to monitor the election and opposition parties have been allowed to carry out largely unhindered campaigns.

These steps go hand-in-hand with reforms that, just a few years ago, would have been unthinkable. Since March of 2011, the new government of President Thein Sein has been pursuing a democratization process. Among the changes implemented are the release of political prisoners, a loosening of restrictions on the press and public protests, and the lifting of a ban on labor unions. In addition, Myanmar's military rulers are pursuing reconciliation efforts with the country's ethnic minority groups. Experts, however, warn about being too optimistic.

All kippers and curtains

The new Burmese assembly, however, is more a pretense than a real parliament. "The upcoming run-off election is over-rated. Even if the NLD were to win all the vacant seats, it would still be in the minority in parliament," explains Mark Farmaner, director of the action group, Burma Campaign UK.

A quarter of the 659 seats are reserved for the military. Of the 494 seats remaining, 80 percent are held by the ruling government party, the Party for Solidarity and Development (USDP), founded by the military junta. Furthermore, real power is in the hands of President Thein Sein. Parliament is neither authorized to control the government, nor can it intervene in the political decision-making process. "This is more like a pretend parliament than a parliament as we understand it," notes Farmaner.

Enthusiasm and high hopes

"Aung San Suu Kyi is enthusiastically received all over the country because the people see in her a way to removethe old rulers. They have high hopes that with this election the first steps will be taken to ultimately democratize their country," says Marco Bünte, from the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies in Hamburg.

He warns, however, that if Suu Kyi is unable to fulfill these hopes there is a danger that the people will become disillusioned and disappointed. Suu Kyi herself said recently that her candidacy was only "the first, and not the last, step" and that there was still "a long road" ahead.

In the West, the run-off vote is being watched closely, as German Development Minister Dirk Niebel confirmed to DW. "The course of the campaign and the election will influence whether EU sanctions are loosened," the minister said.

Currently, sanctions include travel bans on members of the Burmese government, a wide range of trade restrictions, and the exclusion of the country from a most-favored nation list of developing countries, which, among other things, means no duty-free imports. Whether these restrictions are lifted or not will be decided at the end of April.

"The EU would like to let the sanctions expire because we see a development potential that could take the people to a much better future," says Niebel. Future sanctions policies toward Myanmar will also be under discussion in the United States in summer. A number of observers, however, have expressed doubts that the sanctions can or should be lifted any time soon, arguing that it would take the pressure off the junta to continue with reforms.

Difficult election forecast

There are different opinions on whether or not the run-off election will be free and fair, as demanded by the international community. Gerhard Will from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin is certain that "the government will do all it can not to disappoint international expectations."

However, President Thein Sein has little control over many of his USDP party members, who have been waiting for a seat in parliament since the last election in 2010, and who have reportedly been involved in election fraud and bribery schemes.

But observers and experts agree on one point: the outcome of the election is hard to predict due to the opaque networks and influence of the USDP. Even so, it is highly probable that Suu Kyi's NLD will win seats in parliament, and that at least is a signal and symbol of democratic change in Myanmar.

Author: Gero Simone /gb
Editor: Sarah Berning