NATO 'threats ring hollow'

DW: NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Spanish daily El Pais that the transatlantic alliance has been trying to engage Russia for over 20 years - to no avail. Russia still sees NATO as the enemy. Are we heading for a new Cold War?

Liana Fix: No, there won't be a new Cold War. We're not seeing fundamental ideological or economic differences. Plus, Russia is not anywhere near as strong as the former Soviet Union was with the Warsaw Pact.

Russia is trying to establish a new regional powerhouse with the Eurasian Economic Union, but it's early days and it's not clear yet whether it will ever be strong enough to compete with NATO in any way.

NATO does not perceive Russia as a partner anymore - understandably, as Russia has violated the rules of peaceful coexistence in Europe so blatantly.

But Russia knows very well that NATO will not intervene militarily in countries like Ukraine and Moldova. What NATO is doing at the moment is mostly deterrence.

So that means when Rasmussen says NATO has to adapt to the new situation, it's mainly short-term posturing?

It's about taking a stance towards Russia - letting them know that 'we're here and we won't be taking things lying down.' It's also about reassuring eastern European member states.

They're, of course, asking themselves if Russia was to enforce a neoliberal agenda in our backyard, is NATO behind us? The credibility is limited, of course. In that respect, it is short-term because NATO can say 'we're not having this,' but if you're not prepared to intervene militarily, such threats ring very hollow.

How will Russia react now?

Russia is still dealing with the fallout from the Ukraine crisis. But it has already launched a military reform program with substantial upgrades. But Russia can in no way compete with the military might that NATO can offer.

For Russia, it's about positioning itself and demonstrating assertiveness. For a country that still follows 19th and 20th-century thinking, asserting yourself by demonstrating military power is a seemingly adequate means to that end.

Do you see an end to the conflict anytime soon?

The conflict on Ukraine will eventually calm down, but the problems we face with Russia will persist. And that's not just because Russia has reformulated its foreign policy to reflect ambitions and a sense of entitlement beyond its borders. It also coincides with a domestic paradigm shift towards an autocracy.

It means the West will have a very difficult relationship with Russia for years to come.

Liana Fix is Eastern Europe expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. She is doing her thesis on Germany's role in Europe-Russia relations. She also works for the Central and Eastern Europe Center of the Robert Bosch Foundation.