New president begins battle to stabilize Niger

Mohamed Bazoum, Niger's newly elected president, enters office on Good Friday, just two days after heavily armed soldiers opened fire on the presidential palace in the capital, Niamey. State reports said the presidential guard repelled the attack after a 30-minute gun battle. Arrests of military personnel quickly followed, with more expected, a government spokesperson confirmed.

Even without the failed coup, Bazoum's new government is already facing an uphill battle to secure stability for Niger. Ever since the election that saw him take power, there have been numerous terror attacks on Niger's civilian population in the western border regions with Mali and Burkina Faso. More than 300 have already died.

To make matters worse, defeated presidential candidate Mahamane Ousmane is still refusing to accept the election results. Instead, he took the matter to court, a move that precipitated mass protests led by his supporters. Security forces were heavy-handed in their suppression of the demonstrations, with at least two people killed and over one hundred arrested. 

Niger pursues stability and democracy

David Zounmenou from the Institute for Security Studies in Senegal says establishing political stability and democracy is key for Niger. 

"Mohamed Bazoum has to get into dialogue with his challenger, a dialogue towards improvements that the country needs," he told DW. "Niger has to work hard to consolidate the democratic environment given the fact that the country is embroiled in the security challenges. The government must develop a coherent response to the security challenges that affecting the citizens and also undermining the economic development of Niger."

But for many observers, there is still a sense of relief following the first peaceful and democratic transfer of power in Niger's history. Bazoum's predecessor and ally, Mahamadou Issoufou, stepped down after 10 years in power and was awarded the Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership. His own election to office was preceded by a military coup in 2011.

Skeptical youth still need convincing

For Thomas Schiller from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, it is key that Issoufou does not, as per Niger's constitution, run for a third term in office.

"It's important for the opposition forces not to overshoot the mark in view of the security situation and to present their protests peacefully and in court, " he told DW.

Still, according to Schiller, the new government must take the concerns of Nigeriens, particularly of the youth, seriously.

"Bazoum is considered a close follower of the previous president and therefore a continuation of the current government," he says. "Most in Niger don't see this as a real changing of the guard." 

Security the main challenge

But can the new president woo the youth of a country that ranks last in the United Nations' latest development index?

Much will depend on how effectively the government can improve the security situation. Some think the bloody attacks on civilians in March were meant as a warning shot aimed at Bazoum. The former foreign and interior minister is one of the architects of Niger's current security strategy that relies on regional and international military aid from the G5-Sahel group.

Experts say there's another reason behind the deadly terror attacks: While in the past extremists would attack military forces and state infrastructure, they are now targeting civilians more frequently. Many civilians are taking up arms to defend themselves against terrorists claiming affiliation to the so-called "Islamic State."

"This new dynamic to go against local communities shows the Islamic State is willing to punish communities that resist collectively," Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim from the International Crisis Group told DW.

The armed conflict has also taken on an ethnic dimension because Islamists and civilian militias belong to different ethnic groups. But most of the violence is still carried out by the Islamists. "There are no other armed groups in the area that have the capacity to carry out these large-scale attacks," says Ibrahim. 

Niger remains threatened by insecurity

Niger's war on terror depends heavily on France's Operation Barkhane, an ongoing anti-insurgency mission, as well as air bases operated by the United States and international security training.

But it is still not enough, says Abdoulaye Sounaye, the head of the research unit on religion and terrorism in West Africa at the Leibniz center in Berlin.

"In a way, militarization can actually weaken the state," he told DW. "First, it's too expensive for a country like Niger. And second, outside support, especially from Europe and France, will wind down and eventually stop." 

Sounaye says Bazoum must instead start thinking about how he can facilitate a dialogue among all parties to the conflict.

"Terrorism, regional conflicts and political opposition cannot be allowed to coalesce the way they did after the election," Sounaye said. Otherwise, he fears that the country could find itself in chaos.

Dialogue with the opposition is the second major challenge facing Bazoum. "He has to open himself to it and give it attention," explains Sounaye. 

He also stressed the importance of gestures of goodwill and the freeing of political prisoners. With so much uncertainty in Niger, only one thing seems clear: It will be up to Bazoum to take the first step. 

This article was translated from German. 

Nafissa Amadou, Eric Topona, Cai Nebe contributed to this article.