Nord Stream sabotage: How are the key players reacting?

The attack on the  Nord Stream pipelines was shocking, the damage enormous, and the geopolitical consequences are still keenly felt almost two years after the attack. The 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) Nord Stream 1 served as the key delivery system between Russian energy giants and their buyers in Germany, with Berlin braving the ire of its allies to construct another undersea delivery system, Nord Stream 2, which would run mostly parallel to the first one and carry another 55 billion cubic meters (1.942 trillion cubic feet) of gas per year.

It was not to be. A series of underwater blasts on September 26, 2022, crippled the pipelines, which were already out of action due to tensions between Berlin and Moscow provoked by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nearly two years later, no suspects have been arrested, and it is not fully clear who was behind the sabotage.

This week, however, a series of reports in high-profile German media, including the Süddeutsche Zeitung, and in the US-based Wall Street Journal, pointed to a team of Ukrainian divers who may have had backing from top officials in Kyiv. Sources cited by the Wall Street Journal say the plan to blow up the pipelines was initially approved by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Then the CIA allegedly got wind of the plan and urged Zelenskyy not to go through with it. Zelenskyy ordered a halt to the scheme, but Ukraine's top general at the time, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, decided to go through with it anyway, according to the paper.

Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine's ambassador to London, denied any knowledge of the bombing and dismissed the claims to the contrary as "mere provocation" when contacted by the US daily.

The White House has refused to comment on the report.

Ukraine: Reports are 'absolute nonsense'

Ukraine quickly rejected the narrative.

"Ukraine's involvement in the Nord Stream explosions is absolute nonsense. There was no practical sense in such actions for Ukraine," Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak told AFP on Thursday.

"It is clear that the explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines did not stop the war, did not deter Russian aggression, and did not affect the situation on the front line," he said.

Despite Podolyak's claims, however, Ukraine did have valid reasons for opposing the project. If reactivated, the pipelines would have been filling Moscow's war chests and giving it a lever to influence the economy of Kyiv's Western allies. Additionally, a direct line of export to Germany via both pipelines would have made it much easier for Moscow to close off established gas routes through countries like Ukraine, Poland and Slovakia, giving it even more influence in the region. In any dispute with Russia, those countries would need to consider the implicit threat of being deprived of lucrative gas transit fees and risk staying cold in the winter, while Russian companies could simply continue exporting through the undersea pipeline system with no significant losses.

Poland 'did not take part in anything'

Poland is also mentioned in the media as the possible provider of logistical support for the Ukrainian diving team that is said to have sabotaged the pipelines. German officials have confirmed that the main suspect was living in a village outside Warsaw until recently, but managed to slip out of the country despite Germany issuing an arrest warrant for him. Warsaw blamed Berlin for the mishap, saying German officials failed to update the Schengen register that would flag the suspect as wanted.

On Friday, Poland strongly denied claims made by the former boss of Germany's BND intelligence agency, August Hanning, that Warsaw "was heavily involved in the preparation of this attack."

"It has to be said clearly that this is a lie," Polish deputy prime minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, told TV channel Polsat News.

"Poland did not take part in anything," he said, commenting on the claims made by the German intelligence veteran, who led the BND between 1998 and 2005.

"I think this is Russian disinformation resonating through the words of German politicians," Gawkowski said.

Moscow says Kyiv still needed a 'wink' from Washington

Russian officials have long blamed the West for the Nord Stream blast, most notably accusing "British navy specialists" in 2022 of participating in the "planning, provision and implementation" of the attack. Following a report on the alleged US involvement by investigative reporter Seymour Hersh in February 2023, Moscow said it was not surprised.

"Our assumption was that the US and several NATO allies were involved in this disgusting crime,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow at the time.

The latest narrative of the CIA attempting to avert the plot seems to have done little to persuade Moscow, even with top Kremlin officials staying silent on the subject.

On Friday, Russia's ambassador to Washington, Anataly Antonov, said there was no way for Kyiv to attack the pipelines without getting a "wink" from the US.

"They seek to shift all responsibility to their Ukrainian puppets," Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov said in a statement on Nord Stream. He accused Washington of tacitly condoning terrorism, while Russia is continuing to seek justice.

"We will seek to identify the real perpetrators of the bombing and punish them," Antonov said.

Antonov also pointed to US President Joe Biden's statement from February 2022, just ahead of the full-scale war. The US leader said Washington would "bring an end" to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades, even with Germany controlling the project.

"I promise you, we'll be able to do it," Biden said at the press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Antonov's stance was echoed by Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who commented that the West was trying "to absolve itself of responsibility for the terrorist attack."

Berlin doubles down on support to Kyiv

Berlin has been notably restrained in its comments regarding the ongoing investigation into the blasts, which sabotaged a critical investment worth billions that took over a decade to build.

Earlier this week, Germany insisted its help to Ukraine was "completely independent" from the probe and its ties to Kyiv are unaffected.

The probe remains a "top priority," said deputy government spokesman Wolfgang Büchner. At the same time, this does not change "the fact that Russia is waging an illegal war of aggression against Ukraine" and that Berlin is ready to support Kyiv in the fight "as long as needed."

Edited by: Andreas Illmer