Brazilian rollercoaster

It's not just Brazilian television that's able to keep its audience glued to the screen with exciting soap opera storylines. The country's political representatives have decided to give us an election campaign full of high drama and surprises.

These past three months it's been a breathtaking rollercoaster of a race. After the first round of voting, the results defied all prognoses. The predictions were of a duel between the two female candidates, President Dilma Rousseff and her rival Marina Silva. But this wasn't what happened. Instead, the Social Democrat candidate Aecio Neves, whom the opinion polls had already declared dead in the water, was able to celebrate his political resurrection.

This new political constellation means that all bets are off. At the moment, anything is possible: the re-election of the incumbent, Rousseff, or a Neves victory – both are equally likely. Only one thing is certain: the Brazilian Workers' Party, the PT, will be part of the government, even if the majority of people vote against President Rousseff on 26 October.

Social welfare program is sacrosanct

There are fewer differences between the two candidates than their party strategists might like. The PT's social welfare programs are now almost sacrosanct in Brazil. Since former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) moved into the presidential palace in Brasilia in January 2003, the PT has helped lift around 35 million Brazilians out of poverty, enabling them to make the transition to the consumerist lower-middle class.

Aecio Neves of the Social Democracy Party (PSDB) has therefore already announced that he wants to continue the programs and "improve" them. Many members of the PSDB, which is more economically liberal than the PT, see these social programs as their intellectual property. After all, the reforms had already been partially implemented under the previous president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), who was in office from 1994 to 2002.

And it's not only the social programs that will remain an integral part of Brazilian politics. No major changes are anticipated in the fields of education, health and foreign policy, either. If Neves were elected, the biggest changes of emphasis would be in economic policy; but there will be no sudden reforms here, either.

All-powerful Workers Party

The reason for this political continuity is the overwhelming presence of the PT in Brazil's public institutions. The Worker's Party, founded in 1980 during the Brazilian military dictatorship, has supporters in key positions in state enterprises, public banks, and in the apparatus of state. With 70 members in parliament and three governors already elected in the first ballot, it is still the strongest political force in Brazil.

So even if the PT were to end up in opposition, it would be simply impossible to ignore them. If Dilma Rousseff is not re-elected on October 26, Brazil's new president will have to cooperate with the PT every time he wants to get a law through Congress or implement national reforms. And if Rousseff does emerge victorious, the PT will increase its political dominance.