EU Needs Caution

"A country in this geopolitical situation, with such ethnic diversity, required and still requires great caution and sensitivity from its politicians," Georgia's President Eduard Shevarnadze said in the first half of the 1990s. His successor Mikhail Saakashvili neglected both. Even worse: he seeks conflict with an overly powerful neighbor, resorts to military force and desperately calls for help from abroad after Russia -- also with tanks and soldiers -- makes his borders clear to him.

The whole world is asking why Saakashvili is picking this quarrel now. He was probably looking to put the USA in a hostage position. America has been delivering weapons to Georgia for years and has hundreds of military advisors posted there. Saakashvili must have hoped that he would somehow be able to draw the USA into this conflict and that Moscow would ultimately shy away from pursuing direct altercation with Washington.

If those were the calculations of the Georgian president and firebrand, he got it fundamentally wrong and has set off the awful bloodshed in the Caucasus region. Thousands of people have lost their lives as a result. Tens of thousands are fleeing. At some point Saakashvili will have to answer for that.

A message for Washington

Russia has seized the opportunity -- at least that is how they see it in Moscow -- to show the world quite plainly what America's support is not worth much at the moment. Unlike the hot-headed Saakashvili, US President George W. Bush was calm and considered enough not to risk a war with the nuclear power Russia. The White House knows that, in the long-run, with every day that the war continues, the prices of oil and gas are increasing. That is bad for the American economic condition, but brings additional revenues of billions for Russia as a raw materials exporter. Washington's political elite is shaking with rage.

From a military point of view Georgia has lost this war. It would be a small victory if, with the help of diplomacy, it could be arranged for non-Russian troops to be stationed at the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia after the ceasefire that Medvedev has ordered. That would be a compromise that Russia could also get involved in, especially in order to preserve its influence in the Caucasus. America is party to this conflict and can therefore not step up as a real mediator.

Now it is Europe's hour. The French president had discussions in the Kremlin. At the end of the week Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet the Russian president in Sochi on the Black Sea, just a few hours' drive from the conflict zone. France and Germany are well advised to ignore the voices of Poland and the three small Baltic States in these discussions. They are threatening Russia and thus totally misjudge their possibilities. They are a hindrance for a consistent European foreign policy.

As Shevarnadze said, caution and sensitivity are needed.