The carrot and the stick

In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the cooperation among the G7 in response to the Ukrainian crisis so far. But this cooperation could soon collapse. There is a diplomatic rift forming between Europe and the United States. Cracks are also visible within Europe as former Eastern bloc states are afraid they could become Putin's next victims. During his visit to Poland, US President Barack Obama stood at those countries' side and promised protection.

Many people in eastern Europe suspect their western neighbors of prioritizing business ties to Russia. While the Americans are sending troops to eastern Europe, the French are planning to sell warships to Russia; while Washington is calling for stricter sanctions, a former German chancellor celebrated his birthday at a celebration with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

People in countries such as Poland, Estonia and Latvia wonder who they can depend on if the going gets tough. As absurd as it is, Putin's justification for occupying Crimea - allegedly helping the region's Russian-speaking citizens - could also be applied to the Baltic region. And NATO would currently not be in the position to stop a Russian invasion of a country like Estonia.

While this perspective does not have to be shared by everyone, it should be taken into account within the context of cooperation.

Grey areas

The gap is becoming especially apparent when it comes to the question of sanctions. The third level of sanctions - the really potent ones which can impact entire economic sectors - has not been implemented yet. And if the decision is up to Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and British Prime Minister David Cameron, such sanctions will probably never happen.

Obama has displayed a tougher stance. However, it is easier for him to do so: while western Europe imports a large portion of its energy from Russia, the United States is largely independent of the Russian energy market.

In Brussels, the question making the rounds is what the conditions for the third round of sanctions would be. No clear answer has been provided as yet. A Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine should be reason enough - there would be nothing more to interpret there.

According to an official statement issued by the G7, the conditions for further sanctions would be fulfilled should Russia further destabilize the situation in eastern Ukraine. But this can be interpreted in different ways. Merkel said there should be no automatic implementation of further sanctions - G7 members would need to reach an agreement beforehand such measures could be put in place. This leaves a few backdoors open.

Russia is keeping Crimea

The annexation of Crimea should already be a good enough reason for harsher measures. During his speech in Warsaw, Obama said the US would never accept these actions by Russia. His European partners were silent on the issue. But Obama knows that Putin won't give up Crimea, and the Russian president knows he has little to fear in terms of further sanctions for annexing Crimea.

Another question is what conditions would allow the G7 to turn back into the G8. At the moment it is impossible to imagine how Russia could rejoin the club of top industrialized countries. Since the Western nations evicted Russia from the G8 due to its breech of international law, it's hard to imagine them letting Moscow back in until it reverses the reason it was kicked out in the first place.

Need to assess Putin

The deciding point, however, is not the reestablishment of the G8 but the stabilization of Ukraine and an end to the conflict. There is some reason to believe that the current sanctions are doing enough damage to Russia to prevent further escapades - and that the G8 eviction has also left a painful mark. Putin is apparently prepared to meet with Obama and newly elected Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at the D-Day commemorations in France. This would make a strong statement.

But Western governments should first and foremost judge Putin on his deeds and see how he behaves towards Ukraine. There will be an opportunity in Normandy for Merkel, Hollande and Cameron to once again make their joint interest in relieving the conflict clear to Putin and tell him that there will be consequences if the opposite happens. Obama, on the other hand, may find the G7 members' stance too soft, but he should not put too much of a strain on Western solidarity.