Ruble slide not surprising

The ruble depreciated by almost 30 percent against both the US dollar and the euro since the beginning of this year. But the Russian currency crisis has been much longer in the making: Some analysts say it already had started in 2013 when the US Federal Reserve first announced a tapering of its ultra-loose monetary policy, seeing Moscow woefully unprepared for the move. As a matter of fact, billions of dollars and euros in foreign direct investment have since flown out of emerging market economies in hopes for higher returns in the United States and Europe, once growth and interest rates start to pick up there.

The capital flight has hit Russia and also Brazil especially hard, as investors have come to realize that the two much-vaunted beacons of growth during the financial crisis have failed to use their windfall profits for structural economic reforms. To make matters worse for Russia, the US shale gas and oil boom in the past few years has caused global oil prices to slump massively, eroding further Moscow's main source of income.

But what also comes home with a vengeance now is Russian President Vladimir Putin's lopsided makeup of his economic advisers council, dominated by hand-picked oil industry oligarchs. The privileged elite has had little interest in developing small and medium-sized businesses, referred to in German as "Mittelstand," which have the in-built advantage of bolstering an economy against external shocks. In the case of Russia, this would act like a buffer in the recent Western sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.

Moreover, one could get the impression that successful business leaders defying Putin's policies are increasingly vilified by the president, often facing absurd charges in Russian courts.

As a result, observers already speak of grave legal uncertainty in Russia, which inhibits investment and, subsequently growth and job creation. Therefore, the rubles dramatic decline in the wake of capital flight and sanctions is only one side of the coin in the Russian currency crisis. The other side depicts an unhealthy dependence of the Russian economy on the arms and energy sectors, as well as a hostile investment climate - both exacerbated by a lack of reforms.

Putin's announcement of major currency interventions, made at the APEC summit in Beijing, will help only so much. After all, the Russian central bank may soon be forced to scale back its efforts to shore up the ruble, following a decline in its foreign currency reserves from $511 billion (411 billion euros) at the beginning of 2014 to $429 billion now. Even though Bank of Russia President Elvira Nabiullina has allowed the ruble to float freely on forex markets, pledging to intervene only in emergencies, I wouldn't bet on a quick end to the Russian home-made currency crisis.