Uncertain future

The decision at the United Russia party congress to return Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to the presidency next year is no surprise. In all scenarios for the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, it was clear that he would remain the strongman of Russia.

Most notable is that Putin was called on for the presidential election so early, nearly six months before it is to be held on March 4, 2012. It seemed more likely that the decision would come in December, when elections for the Duma are scheduled, in order to spare current President Dmitry Medvedev a half-year-long lame-duck session.

But United Russia found a solution for this problem: Medvedev is to spend his final months in office campaigning as a top candidate of Putin's party in the legislative elections, as well as successor to Putin as prime minister.

Medvedev as placeholder?

This power swap has proved that Putin is the true master of Russia's political intrigue.

One can't help but get the impression that he had already planned this in 2008. Four years ago, he couldn't run again for president because of term limit rules. But, he needed a formal placeholder who enabled him to keep his hand firmly in politics. Putin assigned this roll to Medvedev, his friend and loyal protégé at the time, but who now seems to feel guilty about being a mere regent to the king.

Medvedev performed his duties very well, but the recent decision shows how limited his influence has been over the past three-and-a-half years.

And yet he at least gave the impression that he wanted more than just technological and economic modernization for his country - he also wanted to steer in political liberalization. Little has come out of that.

Medvedev did inspire the hope that, had his hands been less tightly bound, he would have launched the necessary reforms to open up Russian politics - or that he would have been allowed a second term.

Politics without society

However, Putin's desire for power and surely the pressure coming from a large portion of the ruling elite was obviously stronger. That network, which developed around a sort of Putin personality cult, is involved in both Russian politics and its most important corporations.

Critics of the system are marginalized in public, and the majority of Russians see through the government's games but have no belief that they can actually effect change. No one in Russia is fool enough to believe that systemic problems such as the absence of the rule of law and ubiquitous corruption can be fixed with a few simple reforms. Many Western critics overestimate the potential for real change.

For the young and highly qualified, Putin's return means that little will change. Medvedev was a last hope for many people and recent surveys suggest that many people will be trying their luck outside of Russia.

Putin - the modernizer?

Now that the central question of Russian leadership is answered, the political tension is gone. The legislative and presidential elections are already decided. Yet the answers to the important questions around Russia's future are even less certain than before.

The country is unquestionably in need of deep economic and technological modernization. Energy exports and natural resources alone cannot make a future. Putin knows and acknowledges this himself, having in recent weeks increasingly branded himself a Medvedev-style modernizer.

Yet true modernization can only go along with a political liberalization, meaning more competition and more transparency in decision-making, the creation of an independent judiciary and the tackling of government corruption.

How a President Putin in the coming years will fare in this regard remains to be seen. These goals are directly opposed to the system created by him. In fact, it is the members of the elite, made rich and powerful under Putin, which are the greatest barriers to modernization.

It's a vicious circle with no easy answers, first and foremost when Putin, founder and guarantor of that very system, returns to Russia's highest seat of power.

Author: Ingo Mannteufel / acb
Editor: Kyle James