West on the sidelines
The first Russian fighter jets are flying across the sky above Syria. Russian military spokesmen explained that the attacks were concentrated in the area around Homs.
Now that the bombs are falling, it seems that Vladimir Putin has attained his goal. One gets the impression that he has been systematically moving towards this day for years: through repeated vetoes in the UN Security Council, through steadfast statements of solidarity for Syrian Dictator Bashar al-Assad, and through vigorous military support.
Putin knew he could count on China in the Security Council, and on the ground he has been working closely with regional power Iran. Three nations with rather dubious political cultures to say the least. Three regimes that have no qualms about dealing with authoritarian leaders. Three regimes that will not only decide the fate of Syria, but large swaths of the Arab world along with it.
The West on the sidelines
For the West, that means watching the game from the sidelines. In retrospect, it seems as if the West was simply unable to establish its will in the face of Russian resistance in the five years that the civil war in Syria has been raging.
Geneva I, Geneva II, the Friends of Syria Group, innumerable conferences in innumerable locations - and not a thing came of it.
According to UN statistics, some 250,000 Syrians have died in the conflict; in reality, the numbers of dead are most certainly higher.
The West was unable to save those people. It was unable to break through Russian obstructionism. It never even tried to. And what could it have done anyhow? In Ukraine, Putin's Russia showed just how far it was willing to go to get its way. Most likely, Moscow would have exhibited that same kind of tenacity in Syria as well - resulting in a repeat of President Obama's backing away from threats to punish the crossing of "red lines" as he did after Assad's use of chemical weapons.
No other gesture shows just how timid the West really is, and likewise how clever - but above all how helpless. It simply isn't wired to deal with the kind of ruthless politics that Putin practices. And, beyond sanctions, what would be an appropriate response? No one wants to attempt to solve the issue with bombs, and for good reason. But that means: Putin got what he wanted. After a quarter century, as his message goes, Russia has regained its superpower status.
Assad will stay
For Syria that means: Bashar al-Assad will most likely remain in power. And for the secular Syrian opposition that means: accept it. At the beginning of this week, Burhan Ghalioun, former chairman of the opposition "Syrian National Council" (SNC), was still indirectly calling for Assad to be removed from power. The reasons for his removal are compelling - theoretically. Nevertheless, one has to get used to the thought that this will not happen. Syrians will continue to live under a dictator.
In order to alleviate some of their suffering, the West has but one option: They must attempt to get Putin to domesticate his protégé. If Assad is going to stay, he should at least inflict as little damage as possible upon his people. He has to stop terrorizing them with barrel bombs every day. That goal is the most important one that the West can set for itself. They simply aren't able to do any more. For now, the only thing that they can do is attempt to shield Syrians from the worst abuses.