Pakistan Leaders in 'Wait And See' Mode on Afghanistan

More than on the number of new troops President Obama is deploying to Afghanistan, Pakistani reactions have focused on Obama's other main message: that this is not going to be an open-ended mission. Especially vocal opponents of the United States and sympathisers of the Afghan Taliban have picked out this aspect, says Prof. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a political scientist at the Lahore University of Management Sciences:

"They are basically rejoicing by reading a deadline for the exit or withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan. Obama has indicated in his speech that troop withdrawal would start some time in the middle of 2011. And they are sort of declaring premature victory for the Taliban -- that this is a war that the United States cannot win even with 30,000 more troops. In the Pakistani media that is one dominant stream of thought."

Not only right-wing commentators, but also Islamist politicians and some in the powerful military have traditionally seen the Afghan Taliban as an important instrument to assert Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan. But Prof. Rais does not believe many in Pakistan have many sympathies left for the extremists, especially given the almost daily bombings they carry out in Pakistan. "Public opinion has really turned against the Taliban, no matter whether they are in Afghanistan or in Pakistan."

Weary about Indian influence

There is a widespread consensus, though, that the Karzai administration has been working against Pakistan. This helps explain some of the resentment in Islamabad against the US war across the border. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, who has published several books on Afghanistan, explains: "If Afghanistan has not learned any lessons from its own history, and if some social forces that control power in Afghanistan allow the country to be used by one power, then other powers, by necessity, are likely to react. And that is what Pakistan's reaction about the Indian presence in Afghanistan is about, which is beyond the legitimate needs of positive reconstruction!"

Controversial drone strikes

The most controversial aspect in the new Obama strategy, as far as Pakistan is concerned, is one he didn't really elaborate on in his speech this week: It has been widely reported that the president had given the green light for even more US drone attacks on targets in Pakistan. They have caused much resentment in the country. Islamabad, while officially protesting, is apparently cooperating with the Americans behind the scenes, sharing intelligence about possible Al-Qaida and Taliban targets. Prof Rais suggests: "I think what we need -- and this is going to be a long war -- is that this capability should be shared with Pakistan. And if Pakistan will place the same machines, the same weapons and with same, coordinated intelligence, politically it will have better effects."

It might well be that a signal like this is needed to take Pakistan's leaders out of their "wait and see" attitude on Afghanistan.

Author: Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas