Putsch again?

Will he or won't he go? Pakistani President Asif Zardari was in Dubai for around two weeks - officially to undergo medical treatment from which he is apparently now recovering from at home. But what he is suffering from exactly nobody knows. Heart problems? Psychological distress?

Whatever his illness might be, the rumors, speculation and conspiracy theories are rampant.

Pakistani peace researcher Muhammad Amir Rana advises patience. "We need to wait to see whether President Zardari will resign," he says, explaining that neither the political leadership nor the military establishment can afford the destabilization of Pakistan. "In my opinion they will find some common ground."

Memogate has changed dynamics

He explains that the "Memogate" scandal has changed the perception that Zardari had a good relationship with the military establishment. "There has been no direct confrontation but the dynamics have changed."

He adds that those who are likely to suffer are the institutions and people of Pakistan.

The Pakistani media have been discussing this mysterious, anonymous memo for weeks now. Supposedly Hussain Haqqani, then Pakistani ambassador to the US, commissioned a middleman to send an anonymous letter to the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time, Admiral Mike Mullen, asking for help to prevent a putsch in Pakistan.

A political scandal erupted when the alleged middleman went public with the alleged memo. Haqqani was forced to quit, despite his denials, and the Pakistan Supreme Court is now looking into the affair.

The Internet and the media are buzzing with unanswered questions. Could President Zardari himself have asked anonymously for help from Washington? Is that why he went to Dubai? But why did he come back if that was the case?

"We cannot say where these circumstances will lead," says Rana. "Constitutionally, Zardari is the head but practically things are more complex."

Who is actually running the country and where is it going in future is what many observers would like to know.

Rise of anti-Western sentiment

Meanwhile, the uncertainty is fuelling Islamism and anti-Western sentiment in the nuclear-armed country that is undergoing serious economic decline.

"We should keep the borders to Afghanistan permanently closed to NATO convoys," said a demonstrator recently.

His opinions are not that uncommon in certain circles and have found even more support since a NATO attack killed 24 Pakistani soldiers last month.

"President Zardari should declare a holy war," he continued. "We, the courageous people of Pakistan, are not afraid of bombs."

Islamabad reacted to the NATO attack by blocking the NATO convoys from using Pakistani highways to supply international troops in Afghanistan and calling on the US army to leave the Shamsi air base, which is reportedly used to launch drone attacks. It also boycotted the Bonn conference on Afghanistan in protest.

For its part, the West accuses Pakistan of playing a double game and supporting the Afghan Taliban. The US has frozen 700 million dollars in aid to Pakistan as a means of exercising pressure on its erstwhile close ally in the so-called "war on terror."

Meanwhile, the Pakistani president stays mum.

Author: Sandra Petersmann / sb
Editor: Anne Thomas