Sarkozy favorite in UMP leadership poll

"You won't hear from me again," Nicolas Sarkozy told somewhat incredulous French journalists back in 2012 after his election defeat, in what was seemingly neither a warning, nor a promise.

At the time, Sarkozy had lost to Francois Hollande in presidential elections, was about to give up his judicial immunity as head of state, and seemed set to spend several months or years in the French courts.

But now, the 59-year-old politician is one of three candidates for the leadership of his UMP party, along with Bruno Le Maire - Sarkozy's agriculture and fisheries minister from 2009 to 2012 - and lawmaker Herve Mariton. The party's almost 270,000 members were eligible to vote online starting on Friday night; polls close on Saturday evening with results expected to follow shortly thereafter.

French daily Le Monde reported that as of Saturday morning, with around 12 hours left to vote, around 50,000 members had cast electronic ballots.

Sarkozy confirmed France's worst-kept political secret in September, announcing on his Facebook page that he would be making a political comeback.

After Sarkozy's election defeat to Francois Hollande in 2012, the Union pour un mouvement populaire (Union for a Popular Movement) party was plunged into disarray. A long-running power struggle between Jean-Francois Cope and Francois Fillon, Sarkozy's old prime minister, over party leadership seriously damaged the party's domestic reputation. When Cope was later forced to step down in May, over a campaign funding scandal linked to Sarkozy's last election bid, a new leadership battle began.

These ructions in the UMP coincided with Marine le Pen taking charge of the far-right Front National and making sizeable gains at the expense of France's other major parties. In recent years, the UMP, Hollande's Socialists and the Front National have led the way in French presidential elections.

Only first step toward the Elysee

Claiming the UMP role would not guarantee Sarkozy a renewed shot at the presidency. The party will stage presidential primaries in 2016 ahead of the 2017 election; in this battle, Sarkozy is likely to face party heavyweights such as the former prime, defense, and foreign minister, Alain Juppe.

Sarkozy was given the nickname the "bling-bling" president during his time in office, a nod to his flashy rhetoric, his high-profile divorce and subsequent relationship with singer and former model Carla Bruni, and his own rags-to-riches tale as the son of a penniless Hungarian immigrant and aristocrat.

Hollande, meanwhile, campaigned as a more staid, traditional member of the French political elite, winning the campaign nickname "Mr. Normal." Since his election, Hollande's attempts to reduce unemployment and state borrowing and to restore economic growth have been largely unsuccessful; his approval ratings have hit levels even lower than the depths plumbed by his UMP predecessor.

Hollande has even switched partners during his term, as news of his relationship with actress Julie Gayet was revealed in January in a French magazine, followed swiftly by his separation from long-time partner Valerie Trierweiler. Trierweiler has since gone public with a book cataloging her experiences, one that is particularly disparaging of the president.

Sarkozy's influence at the Elysee Palace remained evident as the UMP vote began on Friday, at least according to the celebrity magazine Voici. The president's office confirmed on Friday that five presidential staff had been transferred to other posts, after three photos were published showing Hollande and Gayet at the Elysees Palace; the photos were apparently taken without Hollande or Gayet knowing, perhaps from a cellular phone.

Voici reported that four of the five staff being transferred after the leak were given their posts during Sarkozy's tenure as president, fueling speculation that a mole might be feeding useful information to Sarkozy or his allies.

msh/tj (AFP, Reuters)