The power of tourists

In 2013, the Chinese overtook the Germans and Americans as the world's biggest travelers. This year they are well on their way to defending the title: the China Tourism Academy estimates that a total of 116 million Chinese people will have taken a foreign trip this year - 20 million more than last year. And Chinese trade is a significant economic factor, at least for shop-owners. The average Chinese tourist spends 2,500 euros ($3,100) - more than travelers from any other nation.

China's neighbors were quick to spot the opportunity and have tailored their tourist trades to satisfy Chinese guests. In South Korea, for example, where China's more than four million tourists make up 44 percent of the total tourist trade; or in Thailand, where in August the military regime began giving out free visas for the Chinese; in Malaysia, where many resorts and amusement parks are aimed solely at the mass trade from China, and where every year earnings from Chinese guests make up around 20 percent of the tourist industry's total takings.

Tourism as a political instrument

This makes it even more painful to see that, ever since the disappearance of flight MH370, China hasn't had a good word to say about Malaysia. The number of Chinese visitors has fallen by a third since May this year. The resorts are empty and jobs in the industry have been lost. In Vietnam, too, the numbers are down 30 percent. Here the major cause is the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. The row flared up in the summer when a group of demonstrators stormed an industrial complex in South Vietnam and destroyed a number of Chinese production facilities.

But worst hit are the Philippines. Beijing has clearly understood that tourism can be used to apply political pressure, and was annoyed when the Philippines took part in a joint naval exercise with the US. In response to the dispute and the anti-Chinese protests in the Philippines, Beijing issued a travel warning. This has had catastrophic consequences. Airlines had to cancel 140 flights as 24,000 travelers stayed away. Up until August, tourists from the Philippines had left 145 million euros in the country. In September after the travel warning, bookings to the tune of 10 million euros were canceled, as around two-thirds of travelers cancelled their holidays.

Numbers set to rise more

In Japan things are running more smoothly. The row between these two countries in the waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea went off the boil a few months back. This is already reflected in tourism statistics. Last year tourist numbers doubled. But here too it is clear that if Beijing wants, it can always apply the brakes by issuing a travel warning or tightening visa restrictions.

Beijing has demonstrated very clearly that you don't need to employ aircraft carriers or threaten to cut exports of raw materials to turn the screws. An army of tourists is sufficient. At the moment it is China's immediate neighbors who feel the flexing of this power. But the tourist regions in Europe and America should prepare to become more dependent on Beijing too. The Chinese are already the top travellers in the world but that 116 million are only the vanguard. By 2030, 535 million Chinese are expected to take a foreign trip. Half a billion travellers could be a very powerful foreign policy lever indeed.

DW columnist Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for 20 years.