Underlying social issues

Deutsche Welle: How could a 22-year-old, described as a "good student" and friendly, be capable of such a crime?

This is a question we will have to investigate more in-depth in the coming weeks. We have some indicators, however. He had been in trouble with the authorities: he was in jail because he attacked someone with a knife and almost killed him. It's fair to say he had a lot of social problems.

He was also influenced by a radical interpretation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the alleged war of the West against Islam. I think this played a role, too.

To what extent could his time in prison have radicalized him? He was released just two weeks before the attack. His two-year sentence was cut short because he had spent so much time in pre-trial custody.

We know that people have been radicalized in jail, where they meet people who manipulate them. It might be true for this young man; we don't know. He was confused, and somehow felt it was attractive to be a "holy warrior." It was more a role he was playing than a religious attraction.

You mentioned social problems: What role did they play and what measures should have been taken?

I'm not a social worker, I research terrorism and how it develops. But narrowing the focus on anti-radicalization and preventive security to ideology is the wrong approach.

Democracy and radicalization are seen as opposites. We think if we invite people to learn about democracy, they will be integrated. I don't think this man would have been receptive to that: he had problems that went deeper.

Danish society has to address these things, but that is difficult - because we would have to allow criticism of how we deal with integration.

What was the shooter's neighborhood like?

Nörrebro is in the north of the city. A lot of young people, students and immigrants live there.

He was actually from the border between Nörrebro and the Nordvest neighborhood, which is more like a ghetto. It's mainly immigrants from the Middle East who live in its apartment blocks.

There are Danes there, too, but if you go out there, it's like traveling to the Middle East: women with headscarves, Arab food shops. The area is sometimes referred to as "Little Cairo."

Do you believe the 22-year old's two deadly shooting attacks could inspire potential copycats?

I would guess that he was inspired by the attacks in Paris in January. I see his attack as a copycat act. Muslim groups in Denmark have condemned the attacks, but you can't rule out that maybe some individuals will say: We want to do the same thing.

Ever since the Danish paper Jyllands-Posten printed a series of Muhammad caricatures in 2005 as a protest against self-censorship about Islam, the country has been in a state of alarm. Could the authorities possibly have been expecting an attack like this?

I think you have to go back further: everything changed with 9/11 - in Denmark, too. We quickly revised our penal code according to EU regulations; we joined the US efforts on the war on terror; we joined the US fighting, both in Afghanistan and in Iraq. The Danish state was engaged in anti-terrorism activities in case of an immediate threat against Denmark.

Denmark changed its perception of a possible terrorist threat after the attacks in London in 2005. Two new concepts emerged: "homegrown terrorism" and radicalization. The penal code was changed yet again.

The cartoon affair (in which two Danish imams traveled through the Middle East to draw attention to the Jyllands-Posten cartoons and other materials - ed.) developed early in 2006, and since then, I think Denmark has been very high on jihadist websites around the world. Some terror attacks were foiled, but this weekend, they managed to succeed.

How could the shooter fire shots at the cafe despite the security measures, and even attack again hours later?

That is one of the things the authorities need to investigate more closely. What security measures were in place? What was the threat assessment before the meeting? How could the man approach the building and actually shoot? Why was he able to escape?

You've described what Denmark is doing to prevent terrorist attacks. Is it enough?

The debate in Denmark this past year focused on returnees, that is young people who travel to Syria, are trained in terrorist camps and come back to Denmark. If you look at what happened in Paris and now in Copenhagen, we have to take a new view of the threat and recognize that it doesn't just come from the outside but that political and social dynamics in the country are also to blame.

This is a difficult discussion because nobody wants to admit that we are part of the conflict. It's easier for politicians to say we're being attacked from the outside. I think we need to differentiate more and I hope what happened this weekend will start this process.

Lars Erslev Andersen is a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). He specializes in terrorism and international security.