Sudan crisis: Fears of potential genocide growing

"Time is running out for millions of people in Sudan who are at imminent risk of famine," the United Nations (UN) and humanitarian organizations warned this week in a joint statement.

"Despite the tremendous needs, aid workers continue to face systematic obstructions and deliberate denials of access by parties to the conflict." 

For over a year, the country has been torn apart by two warring parties .

A few days ago, Alice Nderitu, UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, issued a statement warning that the situation in Sudan bore "all the marks of risk of genocide."  

"Civilians are being attacked and killed because of the color of their skin, because of their ethnicity, because of who they are," she said.

On Thursday, the Madani Resistance Committee reported an attack by the Rapid Support Forces, RSF, on the village Wad al-Noura in the central Gezira state. More than 100 people were killed, and many more dispersed, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) -aligned committee said. Footage on social media shows scores of bodies wrapped in white shrouds.

The RSF confirmed the attack, however not the number of killed civilians.  

According to Doctors Without Borders, at least 145 people have been killed and more than 700 injured since May 10. "We see a bloodbath unfolding before our own eyes in El Fasher," said Claire Nicolet, the organization's emergencies manager for Sudan. 

Aid organizations say they are barely able to work due to the violence.

Crisis in El Fasher

The situation in El Fasher, the capital of the state of North Darfur, is particularly critical. More than 1 million people from across Sudan have found refuge in the city, which is under the control of the SAF, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. It has been besieged and repeatedly attacked by the rival RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is better known as Hemeti.

"Famine is imminent in El Fasher," Marina Peter, the chairwoman of the German non-profit Sudan and South Sudan Forum, told DW, explaining that another mass displacement would be triggered if the RSF were to take the city.

She said that would also probably lead to a dramatic increase in food prices, as has been seen in other places taken by the RSF. "Those who have money would be lucky enough to be able to leave the city, but the poor would be downright slaughtered," she told DW.

Fragile ties

Peter said that she believed the RSF was being so brutal in order to persuade people to join its ranks. "El Fasher is basically just the missing piece. If it succeeds, Sudan will split in two, which would be a political disaster"

Another reason for the brutality is that the warring parties are pressed for time. The longer the war lasts, the more likely the alliances will crumble. According to an analysis by the International Crisis Group (ICG), an independent organization that works to prevent wars and shape policies to build a more peaceful world, the two sides have been relying on alliances with local militias, which are difficult to control. "The conflict has entered a perilous new phase, with Sudan slipping deeper into disintegration," the ICG said in a statement. 

International actors

The warring parties are also relying more heavily on alliances with international actors.

Last fall, the SAF's commander, al-Burhan, made diplomatic overtures to Iran and has since had combat drones at its disposal. He also apparently has support from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who would like to see "someone like him at the helm of a firmly managed state," said Peter. 

Egypt and Sudan are also tied to each other for political and ideological reasons, said Hager Ali, a political analyst at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, who recently published an analysis of the war in Sudan. She told DW that al-Burhan's policies and the conservative character of the Egyptian government shared similarities. "Egypt will not work with the (rival) RSF simply because it is not a state actor," she explained. 

In view of this situation, RSF leader Hemeti is presenting himself more and more as a freedom fighter. Thus, he has gained the support of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Russia is also at least indirectly on his side, as Hemeti gave the Wagner Group, now known on the African continent as the  Africa Corps, the mining rights to Sudan's enormous gold deposits.

"Both the UAE and Russia are keen to expand their influence in Africa," Ali told DW, adding that "both states share a common interest in Sudan's gold deposits."

Moreover, she said, Sudan was an important key to both countries gaining a foothold in Africa. "This is being done both through cooperation with non-state actors such as Hemeti, which are beyond state control, and with state actors, so as to cover the official channels." 

According to the AP news agency, Russia eventually plans to build a logistics center in Port Sudan and expand it into a naval base. Russian envoys reportedly met with the head of the SAF at the end of April to discuss the plans despite their alliance with the RSF. Russia will apparently provide Sudan with weapons and military equipment.

'Controlled instability'

Overall, the international actors are not very likely to be interested in resolving the conflict. "For all states involved, Sudan is the gateway to the Red Sea and then to Africa via the Red Sea," said Ali.

It suited them that there were hardly any functioning institutions left in Sudan. This made it easier to establish a military base or a diplomatic presence without red tape. "It all happens much faster through unofficial, opaque channels for smuggling weapons, as is currently the case in Sudan," she said.

"In this respect, the actors have less interest in peace in the long term than in controlled instability."

This article was translated from German by Jennifer Holleis. It was updated on June 7, 2024 to include the news about the reported massacre in Wad al-Noura.