Taiwan election: What it means for ties with US and China

Taiwan is holding presidential and parliamentary elections on Saturday, January 13, which will be watched closely by China as well as the United States.   

Beijing views the self-ruled democratic island as part of China and has not ruled out using force to achieve its goal of bringing it under its control.

The US, on the other hand, is Taiwan's most important strategic partner.

Washington officially maintains a One China policy, which acknowledges the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China.

At the same time, the US informally helps Taipei and provides military and other aid to the island in accordance with the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

The territory's contested status is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington.

The majority of Taiwanese voters want to keep the status quo

Contesting Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections are the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and the relatively new Taiwan People's Party (TPP), set up in 2019.

Three people are standing for president: current Vice President Lai Ching-te from the DPP, New Taipei city Mayor Hou Yu-ih from the KMT, and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je from the TPP.

Opinion polls show Lai to be the frontrunner in the race.

Despite differences between the three parties over their China policies, there is a "very strong" preference to maintain the status quo, said Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore.

"Taiwanese voters will punish whichever political party veers from that status quo," he added, citing the results of previous elections.

The DPP supports Taiwan's separate identity from China and rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only the Taiwanese can decide their future. The party also wants to reduce Taiwan's economic reliance on Beijing and deepen relations with other democracies.

Turn toward China or the US?

The KMT, meanwhile, favors close ties and dialogue with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing. The party has framed the upcoming elections as a choice "between peace and war" — a narrative also adopted by Beijing.

In recent years, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly vowed to "unify" Taiwan with mainland China, even using force if necessary.

The Chinese military has also stepped up activity around Taiwan, and Chinese fighter jets and warships now regularly operate in the about 180-kilometer-wide (111 miles) strait separating the island and the mainland.

Pointing to rising tensions, the KMT argues that if the DPP were to secure a third straight term in power, it would likely lead to a military conflict with Beijing.

KMT presidential candidate Hou has promised to ensure cross-Strait peace and facilitate exchanges with Beijing based on "equality and dignity" to reduce the risk of conflict.

Chong said that there is a "high level of skepticism" within the KMT over the US' commitment to Taiwan's defense.

Washington has long maintained "strategic ambiguity" on whether it would militarily intervene and come to Taipei's help should China launch an invasion.

Sara Newland, an expert on China and Taiwan at Smith College in the US, also noted the emergence of "American skepticism" within the KMT.

It suggests growing fears within the party's ranks that leaning too closely towards Washington could entangle Taiwan in "a geopolitical conflict between the US and China," Newland said.

'Between democracy and autocracy'

But the DPP's Lai rejected the "war and peace" narrative and instead described the vote as choosing "between democracy and autocracy."

In 2017, Lai drew Beijing's ire by declaring that he was a "political worker for Taiwan independence."

He has since maintained that Taiwan has no need to declare independence because it is "already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China (ROC)," referring to the island's formal name.

"Do not foolishly follow China's definition of Taiwan independence, and do not keep following China's narrative in engaging in criticism of Taiwan, which is a victim," Lai said recently.

Is there a middle way?

Ko, the TPP's contender, has called the election a showdown "between new politics and old forces," saying that a vote for the DPP is an expression of support for war, while one for the KMT represents surrender.

Lee Yo-yi, a spokesperson for Ko's campaign, told DW that the current cross-Strait rhetoric is "split by two ideologies" but that his party is "standing in between and not falling into the deadlock of arguments."

But Newland, the US expert on Taiwanese politics, casts doubt on the possibility of paving a so-called middle way.

"I'm not really sure what a middle way position looks like on the cross-Strait issue," she said, adding that the TPP is considered "vague" about its actual policy positions.

Ko, known for his charisma and candid communication style, has garnered popularity among young voters, particularly those in their 20s.

Wen Liu, an assistant professor at Taiwan's Academia Sinica, said that this generation grew up witnessing the ideological battles between the KMT and the DPP. And they now want "something fresh" — a different choice that can get them out of the binary, he pointed out.

Young voters tired of cross-Strait rhetoric?

Debates among young voters regarding Taiwan-China relations have also not been as heated and prominent as before.

Sarah Liu, a senior lecturer in gender and politics at the University of Edinburgh, told DW that "young voters might treat the cross-Strait issues as less salient" in this election as they "have other things to worry about besides the China threat."

Young Taiwanese are highly concerned about "their needs at home," she said, pointing to housing issues, inflation, electricity and water supplies, among other problems.

But it doesn't mean that voters are likely to ignore the security threat posed by Beijing, Liu added.

Chong said China will continue to put pressure on Taiwan regardless of the election outcome.

"The big difference among the three parties is whether they really believe that it is possible to have a positive outcome in terms of negotiation with Beijing," he underlined. "And should you get such an outcome, whether Beijing is willing to hold to whatever promises or commitments it makes."

DW correspondent James Chater contributed to this article

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru