Thai army wants to stay behind the scenes says expert

Thailand's army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, has said the military wants a peaceful solution, and has seemed to indicate his support for a dissolution of parliament as the Red Shirts are demanding. Political scientist Aurel Croissant from Heidelberg University is an expert on the Thai military.

Deutsche Welle: The Thai army seems reluctant to crack down on the red-shirted protestors in Bangkok. Why?

Aurel Croissant: One reason is the experience with the last coup in 2006, which produced a quite ineffective military regime. So, of course, officers fear that if they crack down on the protests, that might lead to deeper direct political involvement in Thai politics, which then could eventually lead to another military regime – which is something the military doesn't want.

The second reason is that the Thai military itself is divided and to some extent factionalized. In recent years, there has been the rise of the Queen’s Guard faction as the dominant faction, which occupies almost all senior command positions. On the other hand, there are some junior officers who are reportedly unhappy with the political situation and in fact are favoring the Red Shirts! So cracking down on the protestors could also deepen intra-military conflict.

And there is a third reason: The military does not want to become a kind of black sheep of Thai politics, which was the case in 1992 when they shot and killed several thousands of demonstrators in the “Black May” incident.

And the fourth, perhaps the main reason is: As long as the military stays outside of direct political confrontation between the government and the Red Shirts, the military can influence Thai domestic politics from behind the scenes, which is quite effective.

What do the generals want Abhisit to do?

I think that the military itself is undecided about how to proceed from here. But it seems that over the past four, five days the voices within the military who think that Abhisit should take the blame for the incidents of Saturday and Sunday in Bangkok and should step down have become stronger.

Now Abhisit's party also faces dissolution, just as two other parties before, both of which supported former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Is this all creating a vacuum of civilian leadership? And might the army feel tempted to step in and stage another bloodless coup?

Well, I don’t think they will feel tempted to step in, but they might feel forced to do something. But I think this is not the first preference or priority of the military. What the military tried to do in 2008 was to install a civilian-led government, a democratic façade, which would allow them to participate in political power, to influence political decisions and to make sure there is political stability in case a new king would come to the throne. But what they see now is that the civilian parties, which supported this kind of transitional parliamentary regime are too weak to counter Thaksin and the Red Shirts.

Interview: Thomas Baerthlein
Editor: Anne Thomas