Thailand: What's next after PM Srettha Thavisin's ouster?

Srettha Thavisin, who became Thailand's prime minister less than a year ago, was removed from power on Wednesday.

The Southeast Asian nation's Constitutional Court ruled that he had violated ethical standards by appointing a lawyer with a criminal conviction to his Cabinet.

"The decision was unexpected because Srettha came to power after getting the approval from the establishment, so his government existed to benefit elites," Prajak Kongkirati, a lecturer in political science at Thammasat University in Bangkok, told DW.

Srettha took office last August — a result, many believe, of a deal between his Pheu Thai party and the conservative establishment to help the party's de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra return from self-imposed exile.

But Srettha's downfall and Thaksin's indictment in a royal defamation case in June heralded the possible collapse of that political arrangement.

Power of court rulings

Srettha is the fourth Thai leader in 16 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court. All four were associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin, who was himself overthrown in a military coup in 2006.

The petition against Srettha was brought by former military-appointed senators who had thwarted anti-establishment Move Forward's bid to form the government last year, despite the party winning the election.

For many, Srettha's ouster shows the royalist establishment's strong grip on power that can unseat elected politicians and disregard the will of the electorate. 

Last week, the same court dissolved Move Forward for proposing to reform the contentious lese majeste law, which bans any criticism of the monarchy.

"The Constitutional Court has clearly become the one to set political rules while the people are removed from this equation," Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thai scholar living in exile, told DW.

"The establishment still employs non-democratic means to determine the life or death of Thai politics," he added.

Who could be the next PM?

Srettha's exit means parliament has to pick a new prime minister from the list of seven candidates submitted by their parties ahead of the election last year. 

On Thursday, the ruling coalition agreed to nominate 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the successor to Srettha.

Paetongtarn, Thaksin's youngest daughter, officially entered politics only last year when she was named one of Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidates.

She will need to secure the approval of more than half of the lower house's current 493 members to secure the top job. 

Unlike after the last election, when Move Forward's leader Pita Limjaroenrat — who has since been banned from public office for 10 years — was blocked from forming a government by conservative forces in the unelected upper house, senators no longer have special power to veto a prime ministerial candidate.

"The grand compromise that was forged between Pheu Thai and the conservative parties is likely to remain in place despite the change in prime minister," Mathis Lohatepanont, a PhD student in political science at the University of Michigan, told DW.

"There is still an overriding desire to keep Move Forward's successor People's Party out of office," he added.

Attasit Pankaew, associate professor of political science at Thammasat University, believes Pheu Thai will remain in power as they need to win back the trust of supporters who became disillusioned when the populist party joined forces with pro-military parties it had previously campaigned against.

"Pheu Thai hopes that their digital wallet scheme and other flagship policies could recover their popularity for the next election," he told DW.

New constitution needed

Many have raised concerns that the latest court rulings have disenfranchised millions of voters and underlined the fact that Thailand cannot be considered a real democracy.

"In a democratic country, it's impossible for a political party to be disbanded only for seeking to amend a law and for a prime minister to be removed over a ministerial appointment," said Prajak, adding that "we have had two judicial coups."

The People's Party — the new name of the disbanded Move Forward — disagreed with the court's monopolized power "to interpret ethical standards at their own discretion," party lawmaker Parit Wacharasindhu told reporters at the Parliament building on Thursday.

"The party believes the situation today will make all sides see the urgent need to draft a new constitution and review the scope of power of the Constitutional Court and independent bodies," he said.

Prajak believes Pheu Thai is now "at an important crossroads" and suggests that it could now rejoin its former ally, the People's Party.

"Both parties are victims of these judicial coups. With this common ground, they could work together to rewrite the constitution to reduce the Constitutional Court's powers," Prajak said.

"At the end of the day, it's Thaksin's call but if Pheu Thai continues playing this elite politics game, they won't have any bargaining power left," he added.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru