The Ticking Time Bomb of EU Expansion

In November, the UN presented a blueprint towards reconciling the Greek and Turkish sides of the island of Cyprus. The plan was received warmly on all sides, but the clock is ticking. The southern, Greek Republic of Cyprus is a prime candidate for membership in the European Union.

Should the two sides remain at odds, the divided island does not only have the potential to derail the entire enlargement process, it could spark conflict between Greece and Turkey. Turkey has said it will annex the northern third of the island, which it invaded in 1974 following a coup attempt by the Greek government, should the Republic of Cyprus become a EU member. Turkey, itself a future EU candidate, is incensed at the prospect of the Greek side getting in without the Turkish side.

Greece has threatened to veto the entire enlargement process should the Republic of Cyprus not make it in. It has also said that an annexation would seriously escalate the historically tense relationship between Greece and Turkey.

Countless top diplomats have sought to solve the Cyprus issue in its 28-year history. The UN resolution represents a serious ray of hope. The Greek side, both in Nicosia and Athens have agreed the plan, which recommends the two sides share ruling duties, provides a good basis for negotiation. Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and Turkey’s new government have given mixed signals, with Denktash denying reports that he had accepted the plan.

Illustration Raimo Bergt