Transfixed by Trump

On June 16, Donald Trump announced his run for president with a meandering speech to a small crowd that was at least partly composed of actors paid $50 (45 euros) to be there. That fact - later exposed by the "Hollywood Reporter" - seemed fitting; the occasion had more the feel of reality TV than of presidential politics.

From "China is killing us" to "I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall," Trump's remarks kept Twitter humming merrily for the rest of the day. But few expected that by now, less than six weeks later, this wealthy political novice would find himself topping the Republican polls.

Trump has leapt into the lead by - or despite - providing more of the same, a torrent of pithy outrage on everything from border security and veterans' welfare to his campaign theme of "Making America Great Again," accompanied by rancorous attacks on his rivals.

It's squarely aimed at the Republican base - especially those who are drawn to its conservative tea party faction. "He's able to say things that are beyond what most politicians are saying," Sal Russo, who heads the California-based group Tea Party Express, told DW. "They may think that he said things excessively or over the top. But they're willing to give him a pass at this point because this is someone who's touching their frustration and anger at politics in Washington."

The anti-politician

And Trump hits the spot. "I've watched the politicians. I've dealt with them all my life… They will never make America great again," he said recently. It's an anti-politics message for an anti-politics audience from an anti-politician - and it seeks to turn a lack of political experience into a strength.

But governance expert John Hudak of the Brookings Institution says Trump's total lack of experience makes him unique in presidential politics. "Not only has he never held elected office, he's never run for elected office. That sets up a very odd situation that in many ways is unparalleled in American history," he told DW.

As Hudak points out, the billionaire's celebrity and resources add crucial kick to the Trump cocktail. "He has almost universal name recognition and he has billions of dollars to back him up. That's the right kind of formula to get attention," he said.

That attention has catapulted Trump to the head of the Republican field, hurtling past Jeb Bush in the last average of polls tallied by RealClearPolitics on July 21. The site puts his support at 18.2 percent - more than four points ahead of Bush and the highest level achieved by any Republican candidate so far in this cycle.

Kicking the tires

But is this really so extraordinary? In the 2011-2012 race, four different candidates held the lead at various points before Mitt Romney finally pulled away. Among them was another political novice, the pizza millionaire and talk-radio host Herman Cain. According to RealClearPolitics, he held the lead for almost three weeks, with approval hitting 26 percent (albeit in a field of eight candidates rather than today's 16).

Russo of Tea Party Express told DW that this time is little different. "I think we're at the stage with the election almost a year and a half away from now that people are really just kicking the tires… trying different candidates out, seeing which ones appeal to them," he said.

As election day approaches next year, voters will move on from "kicking the tires" to a more serious assessment of the field. As Russo frames it: "'Who do I want in the White House in 2016? Who do I actually want to be leading our country?' It's a whole different question than, 'Who do we want to pick today who's going to give them a little bit of hell in the short run?'"

'Little bit of hell'

But even if it is temporary, that "little bit of hell" is causing deep unease in the Republican leadership. Party chairman Reince Priebus called Trump to ask him to tone things down over his repeated claims that Mexico was sending "rapists" across the border. Asked about the call later, Trump insisted it had been "congratulatory" in tone.

But the comment that caused the greatest outrage in the party was aimed not at Mexicans but at former presidential candidate John McCain, a man feted as a war hero after enduring torture as a Vietnam POW.

Trump's assertion that McCain was not a hero, together with the barb "I like people who weren't captured," earned him near universal opprobrium from his rivals, some of whom said the comments should disqualify him from becoming commander in chief. But it all seemed to flow off Trump's back, and he got away without making an apology.

Many critics saw the episode as evidence that the Republican Party cared more about the hallowed reputation of John McCain than the nation of Mexico. And for Hudak, the party has itself to blame for allowing the tone of political discourse to be lowered over the past few years.

"It's not just what is being said, but what is not being said: The refusal to hold people to account for outrageous statements," Hudak said. "What they need is for leaders within the party, as well as the rank and file average voters, to take a step back and say, you know what? There's a lot of people we don't like. But if the consequence of our rhetoric is [someone] like Donald Trump being our frontrunner, we really need to reassess what we're doing."

Even if Trump loses his frontrunner status, his wealth enables him to stay in the race as long as he wants. His participation in the first televised debate on August 6 - when the top 10 of the 16 candidates will be invited - is almost certain. More anguished phone calls from Reince Priebus seem likely.

Third-party threat

But the biggest worry of all for Republican grandees is Trump's threat to run as a third-party candidate, if they aren't "fair" to him. In an interview with political newspaper "The Hill," he slammed the party leadership as "not supportive" and "very foolish," saying he was being urged to run independently if he failed to win the nomination.

"If Trump gets serious about running as a third-party candidate, that's a disaster for Republicans," said Hudak. "In an election in which the Republicans are going to need every vote they can find, Trump pulling 5 or 10 percent away from them will guarantee their defeat."

Russo of Tea Party Express has personal experience of third-party candidates. He worked on Ross Perot's campaign in 1992, one that many see as costing George Bush Sr. a second term in the White House. "Any time you create the dynamics of a third candidate, you don't know what you're going to get," he said.

But Russo is skeptical that Trump would follow through on his threat. "I think it would be a flawed and a failed campaign if he tried to do it. And I get the sense of Trump that he doesn't like to be part of things that fail," he said.

Hudak isn't so sure. "If pride or embarrassment were calculations in what guided Trump, his behaviors would be very different," he said. "I think if he runs as a third-party candidate, obviously loses and Clinton is elected, his answer isn't going to be 'Well, Hillary Clinton is president because of me.' His answer is going to be, 'Hillary Clinton is president because the Republicans didn't pick me: Had they done that, I would have won.'"

Trump's belief in Trump

It comes down to a question not just of Trump's apparently supreme self-confidence but of his motivations and goal. Why is he running for president? And does he really think he can win - whether as a Republican or out on his own?

Russo points out that Trump's interest in the top job in the land goes back a long way. "I remember the first time I heard him talking about running was back at the Republican National Convention in 1984 in Dallas. That was 30 years ago! He probably got to a point where he's been talking about it and talking about it and just decided to do it," he said.

But does he believe he can win? "I think he's intending to win - that's what he's checking out, if he has a shot at winning," Russo added. "I think if he concludes he can't win, he probably won't continue in the race. If he thinks he can, he'll stick with it."

Hudak agrees. "This is a man who truly thinks he's going to be president. Some people don't think that. I honestly do. I think he has convinced himself he will be president," he said.