Tour de France 2020, a ride into the unknown

A bicycle race from a virologist's perspective: 176 bodies close together. No one wearing a protective mask. People yelling, sweating, sniffing and breathing deeply. A cloud of aerosols in the air stream of the people cycling behind and the people watching the peloton zoom by. In short, a virologist's nightmare.

After months marked by canceled sporting events, games behind closed doors and sports shifting to virtual space, the first major sporting event this year begins Saturday. The start of the 107th Tour de France will be ground breaking for the sports world as a mega-event with spectators during a global pandemic. Can it work?

France becoming a coronavirus hot spot

This is a divisive question. Proponents highlight the responsible concept developed by race organizers. Detractors fear a new coronavirus hot spot, which could further increase the already rising number of infections in Europe.

Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit, a virologist from the University of Hamburg, belongs in the latter group. He warns of an increased risk of infection due to the accumulation of larger groups of people.

"We know that the coronavirus spreads via droplets. When we sing, cheer or scream, we expel these droplets rather forcefully and particularly far," Schmidt-Chanasit tells DW.

Unlike other sporting events that recently took place without spectators, the Tour de France will feature spectators along the edge of the rout. Attendance for the start and the finish of the tour will be capped at 5,000 people, and crowds will also be limited for some mountain stretches. Otherwise the route is open, partly because the tour cannot fully close off 200 kilometers of road from the public every day.

Nobody knows how many spectators will be standing on the side of the road. The event has drawn up to 12 million spectators over three weeks.

"It should be ensured that fan groups do not clump together too much along the route," demands Schmidt-Chanasit, who also doubts whether that's realistic.

In fact, tour organizer ASO is asking spectators to wear a mask and remain two meters removed from the cyclists. But as Tony Martin discovered during the Criterium du Dauphine, the dress rehearsal for the Tour de France, not everyone takes the tour's new hygiene concept to heart.

"I saw spectators on the side of the road every day who were not wearing masks as it was actually prescribed. It is very important to point out to the spectators that everyone has to wear a mask," Martin tells DW.

He says the risk among the riders is low, but he was concerned about the health of the spectators. He thinks 5,000 people at the start and finish is "a very large number. I hope that this will not fall at our feet.”

Five positives in the peloton

But there is optimism among the cyclists and teams. They are largely financed by sponsors and need the media attention during the world's biggest cycling race. When events were canceled in the spring due to the coronavirus pandemic, some teams fell on hard times and had to cut salaries, drastically in some cases.

Thanks to the Tour de France, things are looking up again, but this could be over quickly. Tour regulations stipulate that riders who test positive for the coronavirus will be excluded immediately. If a second case occurs within seven days — whether a cyclist or a support person — the entire team will be taken out of the race.

To prevent this situation, teams have established closed bubbles. Drivers and coaches are tested regularly, are required to wear a mask everywhere except during the race and cannot have any contact to the outside world. Not even family members are allowed to visit during the tour. Additionally, team doctors will examine all riders daily for coronavirus symptoms.

In spite of all the precautions, positive cases have been reported in recent weeks. Leonardo Basso of Team Ineos, Team AG2R La Mondiale's Larry Warbasse and Silvian Dillier, Omer Goldstein of Team Israel Start-up Nation, Hugo Houle of Team Astana and an unnamed driver of the German Bora-Hansgrohe racing team have all tested positive for COVID-19.

Doubts about the feasibility of the whole Tour de France event are therefore justified, even if some of these cases later turned out to be false-positives.

Will the tour even make it to the finish in Paris? German cyclist Rick Zabel, a teammate of Goldstein on Team Israel Start-up Nation, is skeptical. "The whole concept is fragile. I can imagine that a Tour de France might have to be canceled under certain circumstances.”

The risk of infection in the peloton itself could also become an issue, as a controversial study by aerodynamics researcher Bert Blocken has shown.

A revenue generator

The total convoy of the Tour de France was reduced from around 4,500 peoplein previous years to around 3,500 people, and the advertising caravan has been reduced by 40%. But even that is still a very large group of people. There are also hotel and catering staff, local security personnel, spectators, sponsors, local politicians and auxiliary staff.

The potential contacts during the three and a half weeks of the Tour de France are almost impossible to estimate. And all this at a time when the number of coronavirus infections in France is once again skyrocketing, most recently by more than 25,000 over the past seven days.

But the show must go on because the tour is not only a national sanctuary in France, it is also an economic factor. In 2013, the ASO generated €150 million (then about $200 million) in revenue with the tour. Most recent figures are not known, but the total should have increased significantly since then. Cities and municipalities hope for an advertising or subscription income with the race, and sponsors need the platform for their brands and products.

'Symbol of rebirth'

"This tour will be a symbol of rebirth and economic recovery,” said Tour de France general director Christian Prudhomme, who of course has to make such statements.

And stars like Peter Sagan have stated emphatically that they have "no fear” of the virus. But there remains may open questions: can the tour effectively seal itself off? How will potentially positive tests influence the race? What happens if tests turn out to be a false negative or a false positive? How dangerous is all this for the public?

One thing is clear: the Tour de France achieves a large part of its fascination through a central factor: proximity. It is precisely this factor that could now become the event's biggest problem.

Virologist Schmidt-Chanasit warns that aerosols could also become a problem in the open air if distancing rules are disregarded and face coverings are not worn.

"This could trigger a super-spreading event,” he said.

This article was translated by Davis VanOpdorp