Hung parliament?

This year's British elections are clearly a three-horse-race. The main party leaders are not only appealing to the electorate - they're also either wooing or rebuffing each other.

Trailing in third position in the opinion polls, Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown is the neediest. He's putting out feelers to the Liberal Democrats, covertly suggesting a post-election pact, and expressing support for the Lib Dems' pet policy: electoral reform.

"We want to see a new type of House of Commons, a new type of House of Lords," Brown said recently. "We're prepared to have a referendum on that. I hope the Liberals would support that. I know the Conservatives don't, but I hope the Liberals would support that."

War of words

But although Brown sees common ground, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg sees "something, frankly, desperate about a Labour Party and their leader Gordon Brown who now try and present themselves as agents of reform."

Clegg went on to call the idea of an alliance between the two parties "preposterous," and said Labour, which is in third place in the polls, is "squatting in Number 10," the prime minister's residence.

That sounds like an offer of an alliance with the conservatives, but conservative leader David Cameron is having none of it. For him, a hung parliament means "bickering, arguing, drift, dither."

In Britain, a hung parliament is a situation where no political party has an overall parliamentary majority.

Cameron's spokesmen on business affairs, Ken Clarke, predicts dire financial consequences in such a case - including a wobbly pound sterling. Clarke said Britain's biggest problem is a budget deficit that almost rivals that of Greece.

"If the British don't decide to put in a government with a working majority, and the markets think we can't tackle our debt and deficit problems, then the IMF will have to do it for us," Clarke warned.

Consequences or consensus?

It has happened before. In 1976, Britain was humiliatingly propped up by the IMF. But the Liberal Democrats - who have the most to gain from a hung parliament - have dismissed any suggestion that it would lead to a run on the pound and financial ruin.

"The Conservatives are losing the election and they're trying to panic people into voting for them," said Lib Dem economics spokesman Vince Cable. "The simple truth of the matter is that the sterling was lower in value a year ago when the Tories had a significant lead in the opinion polls."

Cable points out that, with polls now indicating that a hung parliament is almost certain, the financial markets seem relaxed. The pound has been rising. And the interest rate on British government debt has remained stable.

Economist Martin Weale, who runs the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said lack of a clear-cut election result certainly would not lead to a market meltdown - far from it.

"There are plenty of examples of hung parliaments working. Germany has coalitions all the time and, like us, they have their problems at the moment, but, essentially, coalitions have worked for Germany," Weale said. "In the Irish Republic in the 1980s, there was a coalition government and people there say that was very important in establishing a consensus to help Ireland sort out its economic problems at that time."

'Greek style' cuts ahead?

British opinion polls suggest that a hung parliament is what a majority of voters want. They seem tired of the same old adversarial politics - the cut and thrust and point-scoring. They want the parties to cooperate in getting Britain out of the mess it's in. And the mess is considerable, says John Phillpott of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. He sees painful budget cuts ahead.

"I think the realistic scale of job losses in the public sector over the next five years is in the order of half a million," Phillpott told Deutsche Welle.

Phillpott said that Greek-style cuts in public spending could lead to Greek-style protests in Britain.

"We're about 90 years away from the last General Strike," Phillpott said. "It wouldn't surprise me if the kind of fiscal austerity we see in the next few years will generate something of the same kind before we hit that 90th anniversary."

If that grim forecast of another General Strike comes true, all of Britain's main political parties may prefer not to be alone in the firing line. They may prefer the security of a coalition, and the safety of a hung parliament.

Author: Stephen Beard/svs
Editor: Susan Houlton