Expanding observer mission

The United Nations Security Council is reviewing two proposals, put forth by European nations and Russia, that would increase the maximum number of observers monitoring a cease-fire in Syria from 30 to 300.

The main difference between the two is when an increased contingent of UN observers would be allowed to come to Syria. Under the European plan, a sustained cease-fire would be a precondition to expanding the monitoring mission. Only if UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon gave the word that Syria had stuck to its pledge to withdraw all heavy weapons and troops from cities and towns could more observers move in.

Russia's draft would see a 300-member observer team immediately implemented in Syria.

Last Saturday, the Security Council voted to allow an advance team of up to 30 observers to monitor Syria's compliance with the cease-fire, which was drawn up by international envoy Kofi Annan and officially implemented on April 12. Seven of the observers are already on the ground in Syria.

'Fragile cease-fire'

So far, however, the Syrian regime has shown little sign that it is abiding by the terms of the cease-fire.

"The situation on the ground is not good," said Annan's spokesman, Ahmad Fawzi, in Geneva on Friday. "It's a very fragile cease-fire."

According to opposition and state media reports, violence across Syria killed at least 32 people on Friday, including 18 soldiers.

Another difference in the two proposals concerns how the UN observers would get around in Syria. Under the initial agreement between the UN and Syria, the observers can go anywhere in the country by foot or by car. The European draft resolution pushes for the "independent use of air assets" by the expanded force.

The European version also addresses the issue of imposing non-military sanctions, such as asset freezes or travel bans, if Syria fails to comply. The Russian draft omits this.

Preparing for non-compliance

Some countries are calling for measures that go even further. At a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" held in Paris on Thursday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was already looking to the future.

"We need to start moving very vigorously in the Security Council for a Chapter 7 sanctions resolution, including travel, financial sanctions, an arms embargo, and the pressure that that will give us on the regime to push for compliance with Kofi Annan's six-point plan," Clinton said Thursday night, referring to a resolution that would be militarily enforceable.

The US has not indicated it would support a resolution that rapidly deployed an expanded observer mission if Syria has not shown signs it is sticking to the peace plan.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said the world should be ready in case Annan's peace plan failed.

A vote on one of the resolutions is expected in the coming days, but it is not clear if the European or Russian version will be put forward to the Security Council.

According to the UN, over 9,000 people have been killed since the uprising against Assad began in Syria.

mz/pfd (AFP, Reuters, AP)