UNAMA chief on Afghan violence

In the latest barrage of violence plaguing the Afghan capital, five people were killed in a Taliban suicide car bomb attack on a checkpoint near the entrance of Kabul's international airport on August 10. The incident is the latest in a string of deadly attacks that have rocked the city - killing dozens and wounding hundreds more - after the death of the Taliban's longtime leader Mullah Omar was announced by Afghan authorities.

Although the insurgents recently released a video in which they showed members of the group pledging allegiance to the new leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, experts say the succession has triggered a bitter dispute among the Taliban, who have postponed peace negotiations with the government.

Meanwhile, the upsurge in violence has also stoked tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani slamming Pakistan for failing to rein in the insurgents as they step up their summer offensive. "The last few days have shown that suicide bomber training camps and bomb-producing factories which are killing our people are as active as before in Pakistan," Ghani told a news conference.

In a DW interview, Nicholas Haysom, the UN secretary-general's special representative for Afghanistan and head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), talks about what he believes are the reasons for the escalation of violence and explains why the peace talks with Kabul are unlikely to resume anytime soon.

DW: What is the reason behind the recent upsurge in Taliban-related violence in Afghanistan?

Nicholas Haysom: I don't think we can speak with any certainty as to the motivation, but I would suggest that the main reason is the Taliban's desire to manifest a capacity to act at a time in which the group has been pilloried for the divisions which have emerged after the announcement of the death of Mullah Omar.

There is also a suspicion that the high-profile incidents in Kabul are a reaction to claims that the group appears to be divided.

However, you were recently quoted as saying that the recent attacks are "likely a sign of infighting." How come?

I wouldn't say a sign, but rather a reflection of infighting in the sense that the Taliban have felt the necessity to clearly demonstrate their capacity to act within Afghanistan.

How has the announcement of Mullah Omar's death affected the Taliban?

What we know for sure is that the announcement has activated a succession contest. We will have to wait and see what the long-term impact will be. I say that because if Mullah Mansoor manages to consolidate support behind his leadership position, then there is the prospect of a more coherent Taliban and maybe one that could participate more effectively in the peace process. On the other hand, if the contest persists, then it is possible that the Taliban may fragment.

Is this upsurge in violence a sign of strength or weakness on the part of the Taliban?

It is difficult to say. There is one view circulating in the capital that the return to high-profile bombings in Kabul is a retreat from the battlefield given that the Taliban have been suffering quite significant losses under their tactics of attacking police and army checkpoints. But I couldn't say that for certain.

The Afghan national unity government took a very long time to appoint a defense minister. Do you think this violence could have been prevented or at least eased if the government were functioning more effectively?

I think we need to separate the more general issues of governance from the administration of the defense ministry. Masoom Stanekzai is widely recognized as an effective and strategic minister of defense, so I'm not sure we can make a linkage between the bomb blasts and his acting position in the ministry.

But I think a more general statement to make is that the people of Afghanistan are looking for visible signs of a more effective functioning of the national unity government as well as more unity in the government.

To which extent is this lack of government unity affecting the security situation?

I'm not sure it affects it directly. There are more general questions surrounding the efficient administration of the security resources available, and I think that's an ongoing issue.

I'm not a military expert, but there are those who say that the Afghan security forces are on a learning curve. And we also hear continuing criticism related to logistical difficulties and intelligence failures.

What does this mean for the Taliban peace negotiations with Kabul?

The more violence there is, the more difficult it will become to open up a peace process. It's less palatable for ordinary Afghans. On the other hand, the biggest problem or barrier to an early resumption of peace talks is that the Taliban themselves will be wanting to consolidate their leadership and develop a more coherent position in regard to the negotiations.

So in the short term, I can't see that there will be an early resumption of the peace talks, but I would want to believe that this will happen in the medium term. There is no alternative.

President Ghani recently slammed Pakistan for failing to rein in the insurgents. How dangerous is the recent escalation of violence for Afghan-Pakistani ties?

I think we must see this against the backdrop that President Ghani has taken a significant political risk in reaching out to Pakistan and asking for their support in dealing with the terror-related incidents.

So when there is an upsurge of terrorism in the capital, it is inevitable that President Ghani has to both defend his strategy and look to the Pakistanis for vindication of his approach as well as for some demonstrable proof that there will be a return for the political risk that he has taken. I think what we have seen from President Ghani in the last 48 hours is a challenge for Pakistan to deliver on their commitments.

Will these withering levels of violence prompt the Afghan government to dangle more generous incentives in front of the Taliban to get them to return to the peace table?

I don't think so. The political views expressed in Afghanistan over the past week have reflected outrage at the increased levels of violence. At the same time, while the government continues to be open for peace talks with the Taliban, what we are seeing in terms of the current public posture is that the government is less likely to offer any more concessions and more likely to make the price for entering peace talks higher.

Nicholas Haysom is the UN secretary-general's special representative for Afghanistan and head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

The interview was conducted by Gabriel Domínguez