US, EU must engage with 'global swing states' — report

The West must engage more meaningfully with an emergent bloc of "swing states" if it wants to maintain influence on the global stage, the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think-tank, said in a new report on Tuesday.

The report's authors identified Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey as swing states that wield significant power on the world stage, but which each have varying preferences for cooperation outside the Western trans-Atlantic alliance.

Now more than ever, these countries hold an increasing amount of sway in global affairs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amid a growing rivalry between the United States and China.

"The West, erroneously, all too often lumps together the swing states and other countries that either choose to be or fall in between the two emerging global blocs as the Global South, but this label reflects a lack of intellectual rigor," wrote Heather A. Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund.

"These countries are diplomatic and economic entrepreneurs at a moment of international opportunity."

Flexibility required for international cooperation

Brazil's partnerships are pragmatic and its leadership does not see cooperation with different partners such as China, the EU, Russia and the US as mutually exclusive, the report said.

The West should therefore cooperate more on issues of global governance including climate change and inequality, and embrace a shift away from traditional centers of power.

South Africa also advocates for a multipolar global order and identifies itself with the so-called Global South.

Western leaders can foster closer cooperation by focusing on specific policy areas that are mutually advantageous, the report said.

"The governments of these swing states do not see themselves choosing between two static poles," wrote two of the report's authors, Martin Quencez and Rachel Tausendfreund.

"They would rather prefer to regularly and prudently move from one option to another, issue by issue, as their particular interests and strategic analysts dictate."

Balancing between major powers

India is moving closer towards the West as its border disputes and economic rivalry with China heat up, but its doctrine of strategic autonomy sees it maintain warm ties with nations like Russia.

The report said the West can engage more effectively with India by eschewing an "us or them" mentality that is not compatible with India's more targeted minilateral diplomacy.

Indonesia aims to remain outside of the rivalry between great powers and manages its disputes in the South China Sea without American assistance.

More than a century of Western abuses committed during colonialism and the Cold War mean that the West's criticisms of new illiberal policies have not been received well by Indonesian lawmakers, according to the report.

"A more constructive foreign policy discourse can be centered around mutual respect for national sovereignty and multilateralism," Quencez and Tausendfreund wrote.

"While the swing states generally acknowledge the risks posed by Russian and Chinese ambitions, they do not perceive the US or Europe as credible global champions of national sovereignty."

Different partners for defense and trade

Turkey's strategy has been a balancing act between the major powers in order to mitigate the impact of this rivalry, evidenced by its recent mediation in the war in Ukraine.

It remains a key member of NATO and a close economic partner of the EU, but views the world as "bigger than five" — a reference to the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

Saudi Arabia also maintains close security ties with the West — in this case, the US — but counts Russia as a key OPEC+ partner and China as its main trading partner.

The West should not dismiss global mediation by other countries, the report said, as Riyadh shores up its own position in anticipation of decreased American attention to the Middle East.

Overall, the experts said the EU and US must show flexibility on cooperation, be open to non-Western assistance, and refrain from pushing geopolitical partners to make either-or choices.

"Building relationships with decentralized political actors is also likely to have long-term benefits for all partners," the authors said.

Edited by: Wesley Dockery