At a crossroads

The oversized campaign image of a yellow clock on the edge of Addis Ababa's central Meskel Square looks a bit forlorn. Perhaps the party strategists of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) should have erected the cut-out, which shows the clock's dial as a beehive with a queen bee in the center, near the video screens where the residents of the capital Addis Ababa usually watch soccer.

The bee is the party symbol of the EPRDF. Led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the party's been in power since 1991. The bee is considered an indefatigable worker that labors away in a group. And that's exactly the message the four-party EPRDF coalition hopes to get out to the electorate: "Look, we're working day and night for the development of Ethiopia."

The fact that bee colonies are strictly hierarchical and that the queen alone has the say is probably also implied in the message.

But not everyone thinks the electoral gimmick works. "They should have instead erected a functioning clock for us," one Ethiopian commentator wrote.

Struggling to regain credibility

But what's more surprising is that the EPRDF's clock image shows the time as 10:10. That's despite the fact that everybody, including members of the ruling party, know that it's closing in on zero hour for Ethiopia.

Ever since a disputed election in 2005 ended in violence - 200 people were killed in street riots and opposition leaders and journalists were jailed - the country located on the Horn of Africa has lost a good deal of credibility.

Prime Minister Meles has enjoyed attention on the international stage as Africa's climate negotiator. But at home, his government has pushed through repressive laws targeting non-governmental organizations, journalists and civil society. That has even prompted the US, one of Ethiopia's strongest allies, to criticize the crackdown.

In a country report in March, Human Rights Watch was scathing about the EPRDF's record. "The ruling party and the state have become one and the government is using its entire power to wipe out the opposition and to intimidate people so that they keep silent," it said.

Parties go all out to woo voters

The arrest of opposition parliamentarians this week, and a ban on diplomats accredited in Addis Ababa to observe the elections on Sunday, has further tarnished the image of the ruling party.

But the motives behind those decisions are a mystery. Nobody, not even the opposition, doubts that the EPRDF will emerge as the biggest winner of the election. The party has vowed that there will be no repeat of 2005 when even the omnipresent secret service didn't anticipate the voter swing to the opposition camp.

On Wednesday, hundreds of EPRDF supporters gathered in front of the parliamentary building for a final election rally. The location was symbolic. This is where the EPRDF hopes to gain an absolute majority of the 547 seats in parliament.

The event with buses and trucks, a bicycle rally by youth and heaps of yellow EPRDF souvenirs demonstrated the clout of the ruling power whose election campaign has been boosted with one million euros ($1.2 million) provided by private donors.

The 2010 election campaign has been marked by an unprecedented attempt by the parties to reach out to the electorate. The 79 registered parties have been wooing voters through posters and banners, TV and radio campaign spots, via mobile phone text messaging as well as the old-fashioned megaphone. It's been made possible after Ethiopia for the first time earmarked a central budget for political campaigning.

Opposition too weak?

But the EPRDF's unchallenged position is also based on the fact that Ethiopia's political opposition parties have huge weaknesses.

They are often involved in internal squabbling and have made hollow electoral pledges. Even the promising eight-party opposition coalition Medrek or the Forum for Democracy and Dialog seems mostly united by the desire to see Prime Minister Meles out of office.

Negaso Gidada, the deputy chairman of Medrek and a former Ethiopian president, said his coalition hasn't had it easy.

"Since 2005, we've been thrown in prison and harassed. We've been unable to open offices in many regions of the country," Gidada, who studied for his doctorate in Germany and is a former ally of Meles, said. "From our point of view, these elections cannot be fair."

EU faces tricky monitoring task

Whether the elections are indeed free and fair is a task for the European Union election observer mission EU-EOM. In 2005, the team's chief observer, Portuguese Ana Gomes, fell out with the government after publishing a damning election report.

That prompted Ethiopia's western donors to shun their once favorite African ally and freeze the flow of funds to Addis Ababa. Relations between Addis Ababa and Brussels too have been frosty ever since. Nevertheless, the EU is back this time with a 190-member team to observe the election in a few of the 43,500 polling stations.

"Of course the shadow of 2005 is hanging over us," Thijs Berman, head of the EU monitoring team, said. "For one, Ethiopians don't want any violence. And secondly, I'm confronted with a government that's extremely skeptical of our mission."

But all eyes will be on Berman once polling ends on Sunday. That's because the American Carter Center will not be observing the elections this time after it massively criticized irregularities during the 2005 polls. And nobody expects the Africa Union to issue a negative statement on the polls either.

Berman, who led the EU observer mission in Afghanistan last year, has a degree in psychology. He'll probably need it to analyze and assess election proceedings in a country that lived in a medieval feudal society until less than 50 years ago and that has never experienced a peaceful transition of power in its recent history.

Hopes for a peaceful poll

But the bee, even when it's hounded, is usually a peaceful creature. The symbols of the big opposition parties are also relatively tame - a conciliatory handshake, a "thumbs-up" sign or a flower. But there are some parties who have darker emblems - a shield and a spear, a blazing torch or a lurking tiger.

Despite that, some 80 million Ethiopians and many election observers are hoping that after the bloody post-poll riots in 2005, the country will this time take a peaceful route.

The opposition parties have called on their supporters to keep calm but they've warned that they will not be able to "prevent spontaneous protests" in case of election fraud.

The televised election debates this time have been relatively conciliatory even though they've been thin on substance and political content. Most of the parties have also signed up to an election code drafted by Sweden.

Mohammed Abdurahman, spokesman of the Ethiopian election commission NEBE, said that even six allegedly politically-motivated deaths in the last four weeks will not disrupt peaceful elections.

"Individual political players may have behaved irresponsibly. But the opinion of the Ethiopian people is unambiguous: 'We don't want any violence this time,'" said Abdurahman.

All eyes on first-time voters

But it remains to be seen whether the message reaches first-time voters in the country.

The generation that was born when the EPRDF came to power in 1991 is casting their ballots for the first time - that is if they bother at all. A week before the elections, most first-time voters are much more interested in the soccer Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Inter Milan than in the election.

A reader's letter in an Ethiopian daily recently complained about the "political apathy" of the "iPod generation." In reply, a young voter said he was ready to vote but only for the party that promised to broadcast live and free all soccer Premier League games.

"We've seen what happened five years ago," 24-year-old Salomon wrote. He described himself as a soccer fan who has taken to wearing the Cameroon national jersey because he says the Ethiopian team isn't worth talking about. "Since then, I've kept away from politics," he wrote.

Author: Ludger Schadomsky/sp
Editor: Rob Mudge