What does Sinwar's death mean for Hamas, Gaza, Lebanon?

In the words of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Wednesday's assassination of Hamas political chief Yahya Sinwar means that "Hamas will no longer rule Gaza."

In his view, Sinwar's death, which was confirmed on Thursday, marks the start of the "day after Hamas." 

Observers, however, see a different future for the Iran-backed Hamas militia, which is categorized as terror organization by the US, EU and numerous countries.

"The killing of Sinwar is certainly a blow for Hamas given the important role he played within the organization," Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program of London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW.

Yet Quilliam emphasizes that in the past the policy of decapitation has done little to undermine Hamas' will and ability to fight Israel, such as when the 61-year-old Sinwar took power after the assassination of Hamas' prior political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran this July.

"Hamas will recover by drawing upon a new generation of leaders, redeveloping its military and technological capacity and appealing to young Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank who have been brutalized by the conflict with Israel," Quilliam said.

This view is echoed by Peter Lintl, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "Hamas is certainly weakened but Sinwar's death is not a death blow for the militia," he told DW.

'Missed opportunity'

Meanwhile, German, French and US officials have expressed hope that Sinwar's death could present an opportunity to strike a cease-fire deal in Gaza.

Sinwar's removal from the battlefield, "does present an opportunity to find a way forward that gets the hostages home, brings the war to an end and brings us to a day after," US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday.

But on Friday, just one day after confirming Sinwar's death, Hamas vowed to keep the hostages until an end of the war in Gaza. 

In the past 12 months of war in Gaza, which was sparked by a deadly Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, around 42,000 people have been killed according to the Hamas-run health authorities.

And of the roughly 250 hostages that were taken into Gaza by Hamas fighters on October 7, some 100 are still believed to be in captivity.

Still, Mohammed al-Qawas of the Emirati think tank Emirates Policy Center (EPC) regards Sinwar's death as the potential beginning of "a new chapter" of the war in Gaza.

"Once the responsibility for truce negotiations is transferred to Hamas leaders abroad, these negotiations will be subject to external calculations as well, because all these leaders abroad are influenced by the capitals in which they are located, and it is perhaps through these capitals that Hamas can make concessions and initiate a new policy," told DW.

Hamas' political leadership is based in Qatar, yet Gaza-based hardliner Sinwar had been their go-to person for US, Qatari and Egyptian-led cease-fire negotiatons with Israel since the assasination of Haniyeh.

The SWP's Lintl told DW that despite Sinwar's death, he sees little reason to hope Israel may be willing to now end the war.

Despite hailing Sinwar's death as the end of Hamas on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also made clear the war would not end before remaining Hamas leaders — such as Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar's brother and his successor as Hamas military chief — are eliminated and all hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza returned.

For James M. Dorsey, an expert on the region and senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Middle East Institute in Singapore, this approach represents is a missed opportunity.

"Instead of capitalizing on Israel's tactical success to declare victory in Gaza, push for a cease-fire that could also end hostilities in Lebanon, and negotiate a prisoner exchange that would secure the release of the 101 remaining Hamas-held hostages, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu insisted the war would continue until the Israeli military liberated the captives," he wrote in his latest post on his political blog, "The Turbulent World."

Beyond Gaza — Hezbollah's retaliation

Beyond Gaza, Israel has also escalated its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon after a year of limited skirmishes.

The Iran-backed group — which the US and Germany have designated as a terrorist organization, and the armed wing of which the European Union labels as such — claims to act in support of Hamas. In September, Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Observers point out that such killings have not helped to end hostilities. 

When the death of Sinwar was made public on Thursday, Hezbollah announced a "new and escalating phase" in its war with Israel, claiming that it had for the first time used precision-guided missiles to target Israel in an attempt to "escalate day by day."

DW's Mohamed Farhan has contributed to this article.

Edited by: Jon Shelton